Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $234,430.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet cluster adding to No

Seven linked wallets coordinated roughly $20.5K of No bets, and this profitable, high-volume trader added to an already substantial No position.

  • Five wallets bet the same No outcome, totaling about $20,500; seven wallets share a funder.
  • This trader added about $6,600 to No while already holding a large open position.
  • The wallet is up about $269,000 across 328 resolved bets, though its 66% win rate is below its average winning entry price of 81¢.

$6,628 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Five-wallet flow into No

A coordinated five-wallet move into No coincides with a sharp drop in Yes, though this trader’s sale appears to reduce a large existing Yes position rather than open a fresh No bet.

  • Five wallets bought No for a combined $20,501, alongside a 33.9% drop in Yes.
  • The seller has a 95% win rate and $338,180 in profit, but this trade reduces an existing $10,127 Yes position.
  • Selling Yes at 45¢ converts to buying No at about 55¢.

$1,167 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable bettor with 378 resolved trades is buying Yes, supported by a strong cross-market track record.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 378 resolved trades and is up about $764,000.
  • They have traded across 90 events and are putting $2,221 on Yes at 74¢.
  • The market’s odds fell sharply over the past day, but this bettor is still backing Yes.

$2,221 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A consistently profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes alongside a reported 20-point price rise, providing a corroborated directional signal despite a modest trade size.

  • This trader is up $312,154 across 1,354 resolved bets and has traded 101 events.
  • They bought Yes at 70¢ as the detected price movement rose 20 points.
  • The trader has positions across five markets in this event, totaling $13,706.

$1,235 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

97% winner adding to Yes

A bettor with a 97% record is adding to a substantial open Yes position, showing continued conviction despite the high entry price.

  • This bettor has won 34 of 35 resolved bets and is up $4,860 overall.
  • They added Yes at 82¢ while already holding an open Yes position entered around 80¢.
  • The market is liquid, but the bet still carries geopolitical risk and the high entry price leaves limited upside.

$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A proven, profitable bettor with 81% wins is adding $3,256 to an existing Yes position despite recent price declines.

  • This bettor has won 222 of 274 resolved bets and is up about $100,742.
  • They added $3,256 to an existing Yes position while the price had recently fallen.
  • The market is liquid, and the trade was entered at 74¢.

$2,490 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven cross-market bettor buys No

A highly profitable bettor with an 80% win rate and extensive cross-market activity sold Yes, equivalent to buying No at 31¢, as market odds have since moved against Yes.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 253 resolved trades and is up about $5.1M.
  • They sold nearly $8,900 of Yes at 69¢, equivalent to buying No at 31¢; No is now priced around 28¢.
  • The trader has positioned across 215 events and 313 markets, and Yes odds have fallen 4.5% in a day.

$8,887 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A proven, profitable bettor with 81% wins is adding $3,256 to an existing Yes position despite recent price declines.

  • This bettor has won 222 of 274 resolved bets and is up about $100,742.
  • They added $3,256 to an existing Yes position while the price had recently fallen.
  • The market is liquid, and the trade was entered at 74¢.

$3,256 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

30-for-30 profitable bettor

A bettor with a perfect 30-for-30 record and reported edge is effectively taking the Yes side by selling No, making the position notable despite the modest trade size.

  • This bettor has won all 30 resolved positions and is up $3,574 on $89,030 invested.
  • Selling No at 21¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 79¢, aligning with the bettor’s effective position.
  • The trade is in a liquid market with a narrow 1¢ spread; the cross-market signal covers only two markets.

$1,792 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable bettor with 378 resolved trades and extensive cross-market activity is making a fresh Yes position at 69¢ despite recent market weakness.

  • This bettor is up $763,192 across 378 resolved trades, with a 76% win rate.
  • They opened a fresh $2,756 Yes position at 69¢ after previously closing their No position.
  • The market has fallen 11% over the past day, while this proven trader is buying Yes.

$2,756 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $274,672 (72% win rate)
  2. 0x7447...a16d — No, $270,825 (53% win rate)
  3. 0x3fd0...0022 — No, $220,463 (83% win rate)
  4. 0x0191...541d — Yes, $66,174 (63% win rate)
  5. 0xf559...f462 — Yes, $64,652 (92% win rate)
  6. 0x0c0e...434e — Yes, $57,771 (63% win rate)
  7. 0xf7b7...e490 — No, $57,525 (100% win rate)
  8. 0xa684...a33f — Yes, $55,194 (100% win rate)
  9. 0x53e5...6177 — No, $52,897 (44% win rate)
  10. 0xe4f5...9663 — No, $50,000 (4% win rate)

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$234,430 tracked50 signalsIranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x IranMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes
Yes
78¢
No
22¢

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”
101¢
73¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-30 00:34 UTC

$6,628 on No at 52¢

52¢→22¢↓30¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-30 00:26 UTC

$1,167 on No at 55¢

55¢→22¢↓33¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-30 00:04 UTC

$2,221 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→78¢↑4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-29 23:18 UTC

$1,235 on Yes at 70¢

70¢→78¢↑8¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-27 01:17 UTC

$2,700 on Yes at 82¢

82¢→78¢↓4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-25 17:11 UTC

$2,490 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→78¢↑4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-23 22:00 UTC

$8,887 on No at 31¢

31¢→22¢↓9¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-22 11:02 UTC

$3,256 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→78¢↑4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-22 00:57 UTC

$1,792 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→78¢↓1¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-22 00:47 UTC

$2,756 on Yes at 69¢

69¢→78¢↑9¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-21 20:50 UTC

$1,354 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→78¢↓1¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-21 01:20 UTC

$1,230 on Yes at 82¢

82¢→78¢↓4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-20 01:22 UTC

$1,035 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→78¢↓1¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-20 00:29 UTC

$1,365 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→78¢↓1¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-19 16:09 UTC

$4,048 on Yes at 55¢

55¢→78¢↑23¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-19 16:09 UTC

$1,143 on Yes at 60¢

60¢→78¢↑18¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-19 16:05 UTC

$12,181 on No at 39¢

39¢→22¢↓17¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-19 13:33 UTC

$3,477 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→78¢↓2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-19 04:17 UTC

$2,460 on Yes at 82¢

82¢→78¢↓4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-17 07:25 UTC

$3,950 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→78¢↑2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-16 19:52 UTC

$1,576 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→78¢↑2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-16 19:37 UTC

$8,571 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→78¢↑2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-15 01:54 UTC

$4,000 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→78¢↓2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-14 17:14 UTC

$6,000 on Yes at 81¢

81¢→78¢↓3¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-13 19:35 UTC

$1,493 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→78¢↓2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-13 16:22 UTC

$1,208 on Yes at 81¢

81¢→78¢↓3¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-13 16:19 UTC

$1,356 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→78¢↓2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-12 20:22 UTC

$1,378 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→78¢↓2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-10 14:04 UTC

$50,000 on Yes at 77¢

77¢→78¢↑1¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-10 13:10 UTC

$7,000 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→78¢↑2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-09 16:56 UTC

$3,128 on Yes at 75¢

75¢→78¢↑3¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-08 16:42 UTC

$1,012 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→78¢↑4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-08 00:39 UTC

$3,000 on No at 30¢

30¢→22¢↓8¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-07 04:01 UTC

$1,300 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→78¢↑4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-06 19:20 UTC

$5,333 on Yes at 73¢

73¢→78¢↑5¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-03 07:35 UTC

$14,546 on Yes at 60¢

60¢→78¢↑18¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-02 23:24 UTC

$2,976 on Yes at 60¢

60¢→78¢↑18¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-01 17:19 UTC

$1,961 on No at 53¢

53¢→22¢↓31¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-01 17:16 UTC

$3,521 on No at 52¢

52¢→22¢↓30¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-30 21:28 UTC

$1,831 on No at 53¢

53¢→22¢↓31¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-29 10:49 UTC

$1,644 on No at 53¢

53¢→22¢↓31¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-29 06:51 UTC

$2,282 on No at 53¢

53¢→22¢↓31¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-28 15:30 UTC

$2,426 on Yes at 56¢

56¢→78¢↑22¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-26 23:46 UTC

$2,647 on No at 53¢

53¢→22¢↓31¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-26 23:18 UTC

$7,453 on No at 52¢

52¢→22¢↓30¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-30 00:20 UTC

$15,746 on No at 55¢

55¢→22¢↓33¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-30 00:41 UTC

$6,211 on Yes at 68¢

68¢→78¢↑10¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-19 11:31 UTC

$2,930 on Yes at 49¢

49¢→78¢↑29¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-18 20:34 UTC

$1,404 on No at 55¢

55¢→22¢↓33¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-18 20:04 UTC

$5,124 on No at 48¢

48¢→22¢↓26¢

Related Theses