Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by December 31?
This Polymarket market tracks whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point before the December 31, 2026 resolution date. The live market odds reflect traders’ expectations of a leadership change, with PolySpotter currently tracking $1,344 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $96,601.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Profitable wallet exits Yes
Despite the weak alert score, this is worth surfacing because a profitable 78% winner is exiting a prior Yes position, which converts to a No lean at 68¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $27.7K lifetime.
- They closed a prior Yes position here, turning the signal into a No lean at 68¢.
- The market is liquid, so this is a track-record signal rather than a whale-conviction bet.
$1,344 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering Yes on an Iran leadership-change thesis while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor has won 67% of resolved trades and is up about $201k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M deployed across 84 markets in 44 events.
- This is part of a broader $13.4k position across 3 related markets, suggesting a focused Iran thesis.
$4,402 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Proven winner buying Yes
Surfaced despite a weak alert score because the wallet has a strong 78% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $27.2K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 33¢, implying a roughly 3x payout if Iran’s leadership changes by deadline.
- The wallet has been flagged twice before, suggesting this is not a one-off large bet.
$1,650 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A proven profitable wallet with a 75% record is expressing a pro-Yes view across six related Iran leadership markets, making this a copy-worthy directional thesis.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,032 resolved trades and is up $156k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related markets with $71k total exposure, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
- Selling No at 65¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 35¢, near the current market price.
$1,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable cross-market Iran trader
Serial cross-market trader with a profitable 66% resolved record is adding a fresh Yes bet as part of an $11.9k multi-market Iran leadership thesis.
- This bettor has won 66% of resolved trades and is up about $174k lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets in this event, totaling about $11.9k in positioning.
- Entry at 34¢ suggests they see meaningful upside versus the current market price.
$2,892 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
Serial cross-market trader with a profitable 66% resolved record is adding a fresh Yes position across the Iran leadership-change event after substantial prior activity.
- This wallet has traded 77 markets across 40 events and is up about $175K on resolved positions.
- They are building a cross-market thesis here, with $12K across 3 related markets in this event.
- Entry at 33¢ is slightly below the current Yes price and implies a roughly 3x payout if it resolves Yes.
$3,071 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a Yes-equivalent position across a politically sensitive Iran leadership event, with $20.9k deployed across related markets.
- This bettor has won 66% of 1,039 resolved bets and is up $284k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 3 linked markets in the same event, totaling $20.9k.
- Entry at 32¢ implies they see a sizable mispricing despite Yes falling 8% this week.
$4,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A profitable high-volume wallet is adding a cross-market No position on a politically plausible market, though the bet size is moderate relative to liquidity.
- This wallet is up $292K across 1,109 resolved bets.
- It has $7.3K positioned across 2 related Iran markets, with the stronger signal showing an 89% win rate.
- Buying No at 70¢ follows recent momentum, with Yes down 9 points this week.
$3,898 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
85% winner re-enters NO
A profitable 85% win-rate wallet is re-entering No and has built a broader $13.8k cross-market thesis on the same Iran leadership event.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
- They have $13.8k spread across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 62¢ means they are betting leadership change is less likely than the market implies.
$2,947 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
74% winner taking Yes side
A highly experienced 74% winning cross-market trader is taking the Yes side via selling No, with $69k positioned across six related event markets.
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,019 resolved trades and is up $159k lifetime.
- They have $69k across six related markets, suggesting a broader Iran leadership-change thesis.
- Selling No at 66¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 34¢.
$6,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0x706c...a94b — Yes, $129,148 (57% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — No, $90,001 (67% win rate)
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $60,665 (48% win rate)
- 0x56eb...076a — No, $54,607 (59% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $43,885 (69% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $38,854 (63% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $30,000 (86% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $25,802 (67% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $22,069 (77% win rate)
- 0x3ac4...0e8b — Yes, $19,993
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