Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a general, non-weather-related closure of its airspace or the Tehran FIR by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes only if the closure broadly applies to commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace; limited cancellations do not qualify. Check live Polymarket prices and smart money activity for the latest market view.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $86,758.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
93% sharp buying event risk
A highly profitable 93% lifetime winner bought Yes during a major volume and price spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- The market saw an 89.6x volume spike with Yes moving sharply higher.
- They paid 63¢ for Yes, well above the current 40¢ odds, showing strong conviction.
$8,828 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and $821k P&L is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $821k lifetime.
- They have traded across 74 related events and 199 markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- A $6.7k buy on No at 84¢ shows conviction that a full Iran airspace closure is unlikely.
$1,035 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and $821k P&L is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $821k lifetime.
- They have traded across 74 related events and 199 markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- A $6.7k buy on No at 84¢ shows conviction that a full Iran airspace closure is unlikely.
$2,159 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
92% sharp exits YES
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is exiting its Yes position, which converts to a No signal, though the trade is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $1.24M lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 22¢ after previously entering around 31¢, signaling they are moving away from an airspace-closure outcome.
- This wallet has traded 617 markets across 395 events, suggesting a broad repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$1,427 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on an Iran airspace closure market during a major volume spike, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M across 987 resolved bets and has traded 120 related event markets.
- They bought No at 75¢, and the market has already moved to 81¢ in their favor.
- Market activity spiked nearly 49x versus normal, suggesting fresh positioning around this geopolitical event.
$3,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on an Iran airspace closure market during a major volume spike, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M across 987 resolved bets and has traded 120 related event markets.
- They bought No at 75¢, and the market has already moved to 81¢ in their favor.
- Market activity spiked nearly 49x versus normal, suggesting fresh positioning around this geopolitical event.
$3,761 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable sharp buying NO
Surfaced despite a low composite score because the buyer is a proven profitable wallet adding a meaningful No bet in a thin geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $53k lifetime.
- The $1.6k No buy was nearly half of the market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market.
- They entered at 66¢ and the market has already moved toward them to about 72¢.
$1,707 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and $821k P&L is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $821k lifetime.
- They have traded across 74 related events and 199 markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- A $6.7k buy on No at 84¢ shows conviction that a full Iran airspace closure is unlikely.
$1,307 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
93% sharp buying event risk
A highly profitable 93% lifetime winner bought Yes during a major volume and price spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- The market saw an 89.6x volume spike with Yes moving sharply higher.
- They paid 63¢ for Yes, well above the current 40¢ odds, showing strong conviction.
$1,379 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and $821k P&L is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $821k lifetime.
- They have traded across 74 related events and 199 markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- A $6.7k buy on No at 84¢ shows conviction that a full Iran airspace closure is unlikely.
$4,228 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $35,485 (70% win rate)
- 0xe1e1...d250 — No, $32,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — No, $17,000 (69% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Yes, $15,287 (100% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — No, $13,512 (81% win rate)
- 0x41d2...d7c9 — Yes, $13,493 (100% win rate)
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — Yes, $11,598 (26% win rate)
- 0xb100...6461 — No, $11,037 (59% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Yes, $10,000 (22% win rate)
- 0xe36f...cd91 — No, $10,000 (85% win rate)
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