What is the Robert Kenyon Makerfield by-election prediction market about?

This market asks whether Robert Kenyon will be the winning candidate in the 2026 Makerfield parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom.

When will the Makerfield by-election market resolve?

The by-election is expected to be held on June 18, 2026. The market resolves once credible reporting establishes the winning candidate, or to “Other” if no definitive result is known by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

What happens if Robert Kenyon does not win Makerfield?

If another candidate wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, this market will not resolve to Robert Kenyon. It resolves according to the candidate who wins, with “Other” used if the result is not definitively known by the deadline.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $16,729 in smart money and 2 smart money signals, including recent alerts for whale buying Yes and activity from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.

Where can I find Robert Kenyon Makerfield Polymarket odds?

This page tracks the Polymarket-style prediction market for whether Robert Kenyon wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, including smart money signals and market activity as the election approaches.

Part of: Makerfield by-election Winner

Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

This prediction market tracks whether Robert Kenyon will win the 2026 UK parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, expected on June 18, 2026, after Josh Simons' announced resignation. It resolves based on credible reporting of the winning candidate, or to “Other” if no definitive result is known by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $16,729 in smart money across 2 signals, including whale buying and repeat political-bettor activity on Yes.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

30 smart money signals detected, totaling $173,311.

Categories: Politics, Main Elections, Global Elections, UK Elections, UK, Main Election, Elections, Starmer, Makerfield

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought $10.3k of No during a major volume spike on this by-election market.

This bettor has won 68% of 697 resolved trades and is up $345k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader with $5.2M traded across 93 events.
Market volume is spiking 13.8x above normal, and they bought No at 75¢.

$1,103 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader put $15.6k on No during a volume spike, matching the market’s recent move away from Yes.

This bettor is up $878k lifetime across 919 resolved markets.
They have traded 186 markets across 125 events, showing a long-running cross-market strategy.
The $15.6k No buy came as market volume spiked 14.5x and Yes fell 5 points in a day.

$15,626 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

92% winner betting NO

Sharp wallet with 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is taking a sizable No position while also trading another market in the same by-election event.

This bettor has won 92% of 50 resolved trades and is up $75K lifetime.
They put $7.7K on No here and $17.2K across two markets in the same by-election event.
Entry at 86¢ suggests a lower-upside but high-confidence view that Kenyon does not win.

$7,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

4-day repeat whale

A 4-day-old wallet with 14 recent large-bet flags is buying into a fast-moving political market, suggesting repeat conviction despite no resolved track record yet.

This new wallet is only 4 days old but has already made 14 flagged large bets totaling $29K.
It bought Yes at 27¢ while the market is up 12 points over the past day.
The market is very active, so this looks more like repeat conviction than a thin-market price push.

$3,708 on Yes

New repeat political buyer

A 5-day-old wallet with 17 repeat large-bet flags is adding $4.8k to Yes in a niche UK by-election market with strong recent price momentum.

This 5-day-old wallet has made 17 flagged large bets totaling $35k.
They added $4.8k on Yes around 26¢ as the price is up 11% this week.
A niche by-election market makes informed political positioning more plausible.

$12,929 on Yes

New repeat whale buying Yes

A 6-day-old wallet with 23 repeat large-bet flags is aggressively building a Yes position in a UK by-election market that has already moved 15 points this week.

A brand-new wallet has now been flagged 23 times, with $47.7K total in large bets.
It bought nearly $9.7K of Yes shares in one burst, scaling from 25¢ up to 29¢.
The market has momentum behind the trade, with Yes up 15 points over the past week.

$16,399 on Yes

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought $10.3k of No during a major volume spike on this by-election market.

This bettor has won 68% of 697 resolved trades and is up $345k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader with $5.2M traded across 93 events.
Market volume is spiking 13.8x above normal, and they bought No at 75¢.

$10,303 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

4-day repeat whale

A 4-day-old wallet with 14 recent large-bet flags is buying into a fast-moving political market, suggesting repeat conviction despite no resolved track record yet.

This new wallet is only 4 days old but has already made 14 flagged large bets totaling $29K.
It bought Yes at 27¢ while the market is up 12 points over the past day.
The market is very active, so this looks more like repeat conviction than a thin-market price push.

$3,470 on Yes

4-day repeat whale

A 4-day-old wallet with 14 recent large-bet flags is buying into a fast-moving political market, suggesting repeat conviction despite no resolved track record yet.

This new wallet is only 4 days old but has already made 14 flagged large bets totaling $29K.
It bought Yes at 27¢ while the market is up 12 points over the past day.
The market is very active, so this looks more like repeat conviction than a thin-market price push.

$16,005 on Yes