US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
41 smart money signals detected, totaling $926,458.
Notable Trades
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
An 83% win-rate trader with nearly $1M deployed across 25 events is revisiting this geopolitical market by selling Yes at 10¢, a strong cross-market signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 223 markets and has deployed about $947k across 25 events.
- They sold Yes at 10¢, which is effectively a bet on No at a very favorable price in a major geopolitics market.
- They have traded 5 markets tied to this same event for $28k total, showing a broader event-level thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$3,112 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven high-win-rate cross-market trader sold No at 87¢ in a major geopolitics market, and the price has already moved in their favor to 78¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 891 bets and has tracked a $126k profit
- They sold No at 87¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, and No has already dropped to 78¢ after their trade
- This wallet has traded 102 markets across 51 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge rather than a one-off punt
$33,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven 85% winner is building a broader multi-market geopolitical thesis here, adding a sizable No position despite rich odds, which is worth monitoring even without stronger market-structure signals.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $21.8k across 47 settled markets
- They placed $18.7k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 88¢, implying they saw the ceasefire chance as much lower than the market price
$6,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A repeat new wallet has already put over $100k into flagged trades and just made a large fresh bet across related Iran markets, suggesting an active macro thesis worth tracking despite limited resolved history.
- This 19-day-old wallet has already made 12 flagged bets totaling $102k, which is unusually aggressive for a new account.
- It is betting across 3 related Iran markets with $21.8k total, pointing to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The trader sold Yes at 12¢, effectively backing No while the market now sits at 22¢.
$14,335 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A 5-day-old wallet has already deployed over $13.7k across related markets and just sold Yes at 13¢ on a major geopolitical market, suggesting repeat conviction from a new, active bettor.
- This 5-day-old wallet has already put $13.7k into flagged bets across 3 positions
- They sold Yes at 13¢, which is the same as buying No around 87¢ on this market
- The bet is meaningful but not routine for a new wallet, and it comes with related event positioning across 2 markets
$3,429 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven 75% win-rate trader with nearly $118k profit is making a fresh cross-market bet in a major geopolitics event, selling No at 86¢ before the market moved to 78¢.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 241 markets and is up about $118k
- They traded 7 markets tied to this event for $176k total, showing a broad event-level thesis rather than a one-off bet
- Sold No at 86¢ and the market is now 78¢, so the trade is already moving in their favor
$3,599 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor reopened a Yes position at 16¢ across a broader 4-market event thesis, and the market has already moved up to 22%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $417k lifetime
- They reopened a Yes position at 16¢ after previously closing out, suggesting fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking
- The bet fits a 4-market event thesis worth $23.6k, and this market has already moved from 16¢ to 22¢
$4,022 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate reopened against the crowd by selling No at 88¢ on a geopolitics market they have already traded heavily, and the price has since moved sharply in their favor to 78¢.
- This bettor has won 180 of 241 resolved trades and has made about $118,000 overall
- They sold No at 88¢, which is the same as buying Yes at 12¢, and the market has already moved to 22¢ Yes
- They had already traded about $168,000 on this market before, so this looks like renewed conviction rather than a random one-off
$7,930 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven bettor with an 88% win rate is taking a sizable position on No in a geopolitics market, making this worth tracking despite only a moderate composite score.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $13.3k overall
- They put $14.0k on No in a major geopolitics market, showing real conviction
- They bought at 89¢, so the current 78¢ price is now even better than their entry
$14,033 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A bettor with a 91% win rate and $412k profit is taking a fresh, high-conviction position against 'No' in a major geopolitics market at 88¢, making this worth watching despite the modest composite score.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $412k lifetime
- They sold No at 88¢, which is effectively a bullish bet on a ceasefire before March 31
- The market is deep and active, so a nearly $3.8k trade here looks more like conviction than a random poke
$3,797 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0x8489...c184 — No, $666,239 (100% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $563,120 (72% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $552,409 (88% win rate)
- 0x9171...c3e0 — Yes, $507,815
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $460,853 (86% win rate)
- 0xc0a1...a33b — No, $436,594
- 0x9efd...ad00 — No, $406,868
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $393,828 (77% win rate)
- 0xc09d...e09f — No, $310,956
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Yes, $291,792 (55% win rate)