Part of: Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,007.

Categories: Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Lebanon, Geopolitics, Israel, Politics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable serial geopolitics bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitics market with a strong long-term record and the market already moving against Yes.

  • This bettor wins 71% of resolved bets and is up $323,675 lifetime.
  • They have traded across 31 related events with $629,410 in cross-market activity, suggesting a repeat research-driven strategy.
  • Bought No at 26¢ while Yes has fallen 16 points this week, aligning with recent market momentum.

$1,007 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 85587445, $6,258 (72% win rate)
  2. 0xba69...6a43 Outcome 85587445, $2,940
  3. 0x502f...d624 Outcome 85587445, $2,276
  4. 0x9906...c0ae Outcome 85587445, $2,000 (37% win rate)
  5. 0x66d0...ea60 Outcome 85587445, $1,899
  6. 0x6c64...ac0b Outcome 85587445, $1,500
  7. 0x0313...67db Outcome 85587445, $1,441
  8. 0x9636...546a Outcome 85587445, $1,318
  9. 0x20ee...f8fa Outcome 85587445, $1,078 (68% win rate)
  10. 0x4c43...f964 Outcome 85587445, $1,077

Related Theses

No Iran deal by June

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Hormuz blockade stays in place

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Iran closes airspace imminently

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No US-Iran talks soon

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Iran ceasefire will collapse

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US will strike Cuba

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Israel closes airspace soon

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No Iran nuclear deal

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Trump declares Iran ceasefire over

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Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?$1,007 tracked1 signalIranRewards 50, 4.5, 20LebanonGeopoliticsIsraelPoliticsIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
100¢
84¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

12d ago

$1,007 on No at 26¢

Related Theses