Part of: US-Iran deal text released by...?

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $69,484.

Categories: Geopolitics, Peace Deal, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes at 72¢ ahead of a sharp move to 97¢ on a plausible diplomacy information market.

  • This bettor has won 70% of 990 resolved trades and is up about $50.9K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 72¢ before the market jumped to 97¢, catching a major move.
  • This is a politics/diplomacy market where fast information can matter, but the trade is no longer attractive above the original edge zone.

$2,177 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

88% serial cross-market winner

Highly proven cross-market trader with 88% wins and $339k profit is buying Yes as the market moves sharply upward.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 565 resolved trades and is up $339,006 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in related markets.
  • Yes is already up 21.5 points today, and this buy at 59¢ follows strong market momentum.

$2,409 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable bettor flips to YES

Profitable 79% winner flipped from a prior No position into Yes as the market jumped sharply near deadline.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $66.5K lifetime.
  • They closed a No position and bought Yes at 40¢, signaling a clear change in view.
  • Yes moved up 32.5 percentage points in about 4 minutes, with the trade entering before the current 46¢ price.

$1,496 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

94% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on the US-Iran agreement text release market.

  • This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $39K lifetime.
  • They are buying No at 66¢, against a market that has moved 10 points toward Yes in the past day.
  • The wallet has also positioned across related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.

$3,433 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

87% winner buying No

A proven wallet with an 87% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No at 73¢ while also positioning across the same US-Iran event.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $3,479 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 73¢, and the market has already moved to 78¢ in their favor.
  • The wallet is also active across 2 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

94% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on the US-Iran agreement text release market.

  • This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $39K lifetime.
  • They are buying No at 66¢, against a market that has moved 10 points toward Yes in the past day.
  • The wallet has also positioned across related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,276 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

Profitable new event bettor

A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a fast-moving diplomacy market with corroborating price momentum.

  • This 4-day-old wallet is already up $7.6K and has placed $26K across repeated flagged bets.
  • The market jumped sharply toward Yes, with a 32-point move in about 4 minutes.
  • This is a time-sensitive diplomatic-release market, where faster information can matter.

$2,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable trader flips Yes

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime P&L has flipped from a prior No position to buying Yes ahead of a fast-moving political deadline market.

  • This bettor is up $1.19M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • They previously closed a No position here and are now buying Yes at 60¢.
  • The market has moved up 25.5 points in the last day, matching the direction of this trade.

$2,981 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%

88% serial cross-market winner

Highly proven cross-market trader with 88% wins and $339k profit is buying Yes as the market moves sharply upward.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 565 resolved trades and is up $339,006 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in related markets.
  • Yes is already up 21.5 points today, and this buy at 59¢ follows strong market momentum.

$2,275 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable new event bettor

A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a fast-moving diplomacy market with corroborating price momentum.

  • This 4-day-old wallet is already up $7.6K and has placed $26K across repeated flagged bets.
  • The market jumped sharply toward Yes, with a 32-point move in about 4 minutes.
  • This is a time-sensitive diplomatic-release market, where faster information can matter.

$2,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x62cf...5826 Outcome 11007230, $39,421 (66% win rate)
  2. 0x34ab...3eb5 Outcome 11007230, $26,117 (36% win rate)
  3. 0x371e...0f81 Outcome 11007230, $15,000
  4. 0x4f9c...dd8b Outcome 11007230, $15,000
  5. 0x5f07...09b4 Outcome 11007230, $14,000
  6. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 11007230, $12,846 (57% win rate)
  7. 0x5935...9c0e Outcome 11007230, $10,000
  8. 0x1637...69fc Outcome 11007230, $8,320
  9. 0x757a...842b Outcome 11007230, $7,487
  10. 0x5647...de1d Outcome 11007230, $5,000

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses

Covers 3 related markets

Predict.fun tops $400M

Covers 4 related markets

No early June deal

Covers 2 related markets

Iran deal lands late June

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal arrives late

Covers 2 related markets

June 19 qualifies, later don’t

Covers 3 related markets

Israel closes airspace in August

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Announcers will say Captain

Covers 1 related market

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

ResolvedUS-Iran deal text released by...?$69,484 tracked20 signalsGeopoliticsPeace DealU.S. x IranIranPolitics

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$2,177 on Yes at 72¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$2,409 on Yes at 59¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$1,496 on Yes at 40¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$3,433 on No at 66¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$1,241 on No at 73¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$1,276 on No at 66¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$2,040 on Yes at 62¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$2,981 on Yes at 60¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$2,275 on Yes at 59¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$2,743 on Yes at 62¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$12,840 on No at 66¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$4,080 on Yes at 49¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$1,253 on Yes at 62¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$2,426 on Yes at 59¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$15,982 on Yes at 87¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$2,043 on No at 58¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$1,071 on Yes at 59¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$1,496 on Yes at 60¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

52d ago

$1,250 on Yes at 60¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

53d ago

$4,974 on No at 66¢

Related Theses