Part of: US-Iran deal text released by...?

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

This prediction market asks whether any portion of the written US-Iran diplomatic agreement announced on June 14, 2026 will be made widely available to the public by 11:59 PM ET on June 17. PolySpotter is tracking $1,241 in smart money activity, with recent alerts showing both YES and NO buying, including a profitable trader flipping to Yes. The market resolves after the June 17 deadline, with the listed resolution timestamp at 2026-06-18 03:59 UTC.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

16 smart money signals detected, totaling $60,592.

Categories: Geopolitics, Peace Deal, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

87% winner buying No

A proven wallet with an 87% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No at 73¢ while also positioning across the same US-Iran event.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $3,479 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 73¢, and the market has already moved to 78¢ in their favor.
  • The wallet is also active across 2 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

94% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on the US-Iran agreement text release market.

  • This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $39K lifetime.
  • They are buying No at 66¢, against a market that has moved 10 points toward Yes in the past day.
  • The wallet has also positioned across related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,276 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable new event bettor

A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a fast-moving diplomacy market with corroborating price momentum.

  • This 4-day-old wallet is already up $7.6K and has placed $26K across repeated flagged bets.
  • The market jumped sharply toward Yes, with a 32-point move in about 4 minutes.
  • This is a time-sensitive diplomatic-release market, where faster information can matter.

$2,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable trader flips Yes

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime P&L has flipped from a prior No position to buying Yes ahead of a fast-moving political deadline market.

  • This bettor is up $1.19M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • They previously closed a No position here and are now buying Yes at 60¢.
  • The market has moved up 25.5 points in the last day, matching the direction of this trade.

$2,981 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

88% serial cross-market winner

Highly proven cross-market trader with 88% wins and $339k profit is buying Yes as the market moves sharply upward.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 565 resolved trades and is up $339,006 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in related markets.
  • Yes is already up 21.5 points today, and this buy at 59¢ follows strong market momentum.

$2,275 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable new event bettor

A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a fast-moving diplomacy market with corroborating price momentum.

  • This 4-day-old wallet is already up $7.6K and has placed $26K across repeated flagged bets.
  • The market jumped sharply toward Yes, with a 32-point move in about 4 minutes.
  • This is a time-sensitive diplomatic-release market, where faster information can matter.

$2,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Funded cluster buying NO

High-conviction No flow from profitable whale wallets and a repeat new-wallet winner, with an 8-wallet funded cluster and sharp price move toward No before deadline.

  • Multiple profitable wallets are lining up on No, including one bettor up $1.16M lifetime and a new repeat bettor up $7.6K.
  • An 8-wallet funded cluster has been active around this thesis, with $12.8K in same-direction No exposure in this alert.
  • No has moved from about 58¢ to 75¢ as volume spiked 20x, suggesting the market is repricing before the June 17 deadline.

$12,840 on No

Linked wallets buying YES

High-score Yes cluster with linked-wallet funding, one-sided flow, a 13.5x volume spike, and a rapid upward price move despite mixed wallet track records.

  • 8 linked wallets share the same funder, with 3 wallets buying the same Yes side in this scan.
  • The market saw a 13.5x volume spike and a fast 32-point Yes price jump within about 4 minutes.
  • Entry averaged around 49¢, while Yes is now near 40¢, offering a cheaper re-entry than the cluster paid.

$4,080 on Yes

Profitable new event bettor

A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a fast-moving diplomacy market with corroborating price momentum.

  • This 4-day-old wallet is already up $7.6K and has placed $26K across repeated flagged bets.
  • The market jumped sharply toward Yes, with a 32-point move in about 4 minutes.
  • This is a time-sensitive diplomatic-release market, where faster information can matter.

$1,253 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

88% serial cross-market winner

Highly proven cross-market trader with 88% wins and $339k profit is buying Yes as the market moves sharply upward.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 565 resolved trades and is up $339,006 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in related markets.
  • Yes is already up 21.5 points today, and this buy at 59¢ follows strong market momentum.

$2,426 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x44c1...ebc1 Yes, $31,292 (58% win rate)
  2. 0x62cf...5826 No, $22,436 (63% win rate)
  3. 0x53e5...6177 No, $17,712 (43% win rate)
  4. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $16,891 (63% win rate)
  5. 0xb476...6eac Yes, $12,555 (64% win rate)
  6. 0x4699...e03c Yes, $10,000 (97% win rate)
  7. 0x0cb1...dea6 No, $8,542 (94% win rate)
  8. 0x7447...a16d No, $7,648 (58% win rate)
  9. 0x757a...842b No, $7,487
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $5,416

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Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

13hUS-Iran deal text released by...?$60,592 tracked16 signalsGeopoliticsPeace DealU.S. x IranIranPolitics
Yes
14¢
No
87¢

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
89¢
56¢
24¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

21m ago

$1,241 on No at 73¢

73¢87¢14¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

1h ago

$1,276 on No at 66¢

66¢87¢21¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

2h ago

$2,040 on Yes at 62¢

62¢14¢48¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

2h ago

$2,981 on Yes at 60¢

60¢14¢46¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

2h ago

$2,275 on Yes at 59¢

59¢14¢45¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

2h ago

$2,743 on Yes at 62¢

62¢14¢48¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

2h ago

$12,840 on No at 66¢

66¢87¢21¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

3h ago

$4,080 on Yes at 49¢

49¢14¢35¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

3h ago

$1,253 on Yes at 62¢

62¢14¢48¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

3h ago

$2,426 on Yes at 59¢

59¢14¢45¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

3h ago

$16,604 on Yes at 67¢

67¢14¢53¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

3h ago

$2,043 on No at 58¢

58¢87¢29¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

4h ago

$1,071 on Yes at 59¢

59¢14¢45¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

4h ago

$1,496 on Yes at 60¢

60¢14¢46¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

4h ago

$1,250 on Yes at 60¢

60¢14¢46¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

12h ago

$4,974 on No at 66¢

66¢87¢21¢

Related Theses