US-Iran deal text released by...?
36 signals across 3 markets · $138,393 tracked · resolves Jul 1, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether any portion of the written US-Iran diplomatic agreement announced on June 14, 2026 becomes publicly available by the market deadline. Traders are pricing the likelihood of a text release by June 16, with PolySpotter monitoring $4,454 in smart money activity, including a signal from a 97% serial cross-market winner.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Funded cluster buying NO
High-conviction No flow from profitable whale wallets and a repeat new-wallet winner, with an 8-wallet funded cluster and sharp price move toward No before deadline.
$12,840Score: 29.8 - Whale-led No cluster
High-scoring No cluster with linked wallets, a profitable repeat new wallet, and a $1.16M lifetime-P&L trader moving together near deadline.
$4,763Score: 20.7 - Linked wallets buying YES
High-score Yes cluster with linked-wallet funding, one-sided flow, a 13.5x volume spike, and a rapid upward price move despite mixed wallet track records.
$4,080Score: 18.5 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
High-score coordinated Yes flow from five wallets, including several highly profitable serial traders, amid a major volume spike and recent price movement.
$19,262Score: 15.1 - Six-wallet sharp Yes surge
Six wallets bought the same bullish outcome, including multiple profitable serial traders, while the market jumped sharply toward near-certain odds.
$15,982Score: 13.8 - Profitable new event bettor
A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a fast-moving diplomacy market with corroborating price momentum.
$2,743Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 12.5 - Profitable trader flips Yes
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime P&L has flipped from a prior No position to buying Yes ahead of a fast-moving political deadline market.
$2,981Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 12.3 - Profitable event traders align
Three profitable, high-volume event traders are aligned on Yes in a diplomacy market with strong daily momentum, though the trade size is modest relative to market volume.
$4,496Score: 11.7 - 88% serial cross-market winner
Highly proven cross-market trader with 88% wins and $339k profit is buying Yes as the market moves sharply upward.
$2,275Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 11.3 - Profitable new event bettor
A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a fast-moving diplomacy market with corroborating price momentum.
$1,253Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 11.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$20,308 · 2 markets · 8 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$7,155 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 60% wins
- 0x0cb16f…dea6$7,075 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 89% wins
- 0xf45748…ac4e$6,036 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 86% wins
- 0x757a11…842b$4,974 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x35bbba…009b$4,790 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x46992d…e03c$4,454 · 1 market · 1 alert · 97% wins
- 0xbacd00…ab35$3,399 · 1 market · 1 alert · 48% wins
- 0x515e21…8309$3,303 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0x97ead8…3363$2,177 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
FAQs
What are the odds the US-Iran deal text is released by June 16?
The event’s odds reflect Polymarket traders’ real-time view on whether any part of the June 14 US-Iran agreement text becomes widely public before the June 16 deadline.
What does this US-Iran prediction market resolve on?
It resolves “Yes” if any portion of the agreement text announced by the US and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves “No.”
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter is tracking $4,454 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent signal from a trader labeled as a 97% serial cross-market winner.
When does the US-Iran deal text market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2026, though the key outcome depends on whether the agreement text is publicly released by the June 16 deadline.