Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
This Polymarket market asks whether Iran will initiate a major non-weather-related closure of its airspace by May 24, resolving at 11:59 PM ET if the listed criteria are met. PolySpotter is tracking $6,579 in smart money activity across 3 signals, with recent alerts including multiple No-side clusters and a cross-market Yes cluster.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $254,101.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable event specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is backing No after building a broader $90k thesis across six related event markets.
- This bettor has won 62% of 847 resolved trades and is up $331k lifetime.
- They have traded $90,773 across six related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 82¢ follows a sharp move lower in Yes, which is down about 20 points today.
$2,460 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $331k lifetime P&L is adding to a broader No-leaning thesis across six related Iran-airspace markets.
- This bettor has won 62% of 847 resolved trades and is up $331k lifetime.
- They have traded $88k across six related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Bought No at 79¢ as the market has moved toward No, with Yes down 19 points over the last day.
$2,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 718 resolved bets and +$147k lifetime P&L is buying No ahead of a near-term geopolitical resolution.
- This bettor has traded 159 markets across 99 events and is up $147k lifetime.
- They are buying No at 81¢ as Yes odds have fallen 19 points in the last day.
- The market resolves by May 24, so this is a short-window bet against a major Iran airspace closure.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
91% win-rate event trader
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and +$731k lifetime P&L bought No at 80% across a broader event thesis.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $731k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.6M deployed across 37 events.
- This is part of a 4-market event thesis totaling $21.9k, backing No at 80%.
$1,375 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long cross-market track record is buying No across this Iran airspace event.
- This bettor has won 68% of 865 resolved bets and is up about $773k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.0M+ bet across 128 related-event markets.
- They bought No at 81¢ while Yes has fallen 15.5% in the last day, aligning with recent market momentum.
$2,141 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
87% winner betting No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 87% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market No position across related Iran airspace markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $517k lifetime.
- They have put $21.5k across 4 related markets, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 81¢ means they are backing no major Iran airspace closure by the deadline.
$4,948 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
91% sharp buys Yes
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a major volume spike on a geopolitical airspace market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $155k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.0M deployed across 126 markets.
- Yes buying came during a 22x volume spike, with entry at 21¢ implying a high-upside geopolitical bet.
$4,793 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying No after building a broader $60.7k thesis across four related markets.
- This bettor has won 67% of resolved trades and is up about $223k lifetime.
- They have $60.7k positioned across four related markets, suggesting a broader event-level thesis.
- After closing an earlier Yes position, they are now buying No at 76¢.
$4,331 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is expressing a coordinated Iran-airspace thesis across 4 related markets, converting here to a BUY Yes at 26¢.
- This bettor is up $67.8K across 237 resolved markets, with a 66% win rate.
- They have traded 25 related events before and are now positioned across 4 markets in this event.
- Selling No at 74¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 26¢, implying they see upside from current odds.
$3,490 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large same-event thesis is buying No on a geopolitical airspace market despite the market being actively traded.
- This bettor has a long track record: 67% wins across 1,054 resolved bets and $316K lifetime profit.
- They are active across 5 related markets in this event with $64K positioned, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 79¢ on No implies they see closure as less likely than the market’s current 23% Yes price.
$1,532 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0x3915...faff — Yes, $158,138
- 0xf284...b9f9 — No, $134,388 (93% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $115,835 (91% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $114,960 (67% win rate)
- 0x1113...9ba3 — Yes, $80,357
- 0x04f7...92f8 — Yes, $62,492
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $56,058 (69% win rate)
- 0xc0ff...9953 — No, $45,992 (64% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — No, $37,609 (68% win rate)
- 0x61e7...6e8b — No, $34,170 (54% win rate)
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