Part of: Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
This Polymarket market predicts whether at least one U.S. Supreme Court seat will become vacant at any point between January 1 and December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if a vacancy occurs due to retirement, resignation, death, or another qualifying departure, based primarily on official U.S. government announcements. PolySpotter is tracking $1,331 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including recent sharp buying momentum in a thin order book.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,352.
Categories: SCOTUS, Courts, Politics, 2026 Predictions
Notable Trades
Profitable sharp buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a long 76% historical win rate bought Yes in a thin political market during a rapid upward price move.
- This bettor has won 76% of 662 resolved bets and is up $33.8K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 76¢ as the market jumped more than 30 points in minutes.
- The market is relatively thin, so a $1.3K buy is meaningful against only $2.8K liquidity.
$1,331 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable wallet moves thin book
A profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes aggressively in a very thin political market, causing a sharp upward move despite the wide spread.
- This high-volume bettor is up $167K lifetime across $4.5M traded.
- The $2K buy was large relative to the market’s $2.3K liquidity and pushed Yes sharply higher.
- Entry at 76¢ shows aggressive conviction, though the wide spread makes this a higher-risk signal.
$2,021 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%
Top Holders
- 0xcd4b...5ea1 — Yes, $1,870 (45% win rate)
- 0x9bae...5d34 — Yes, $1,674 (69% win rate)
- 0xb755...3551 — No, $1,083
- 0xbd3d...742f — No, $1,072
- 0xd5b9...e44e — No, $775 (59% win rate)
- 0xe899...0899 — Yes, $751 (70% win rate)
- 0xf6aa...178e — No, $676 (100% win rate)
- 0x7495...7fcf — No, $583
- 0xa591...9079 — No, $343 (54% win rate)
- 0xb905...1640 — Yes, $317
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