Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a general, non-weather-related closure of all commercial aviation through Iranian airspace or the Tehran FIR by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market currently shows one tracked smart-money signal, with a recent bettor adding to No; live market odds determine the implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,167.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market bettor adds to No
A consistently active and profitable cross-market trader is adding $2,167 to an existing No position while taking the same view across four markets in this event.
- This bettor is up $57,000 across 123 resolved trades and has a 72% win rate.
- The wallet is backing No across four markets in the same event, with $41,190 committed.
- This is an addition to an existing No position, bought at 75¢ while the market now prices No at 78¢.
$2,167 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Top Holders
- 0x162f...798d — No, $31,245 (65% win rate)
- 0xb51b...b4d9 — No, $14,495 (60% win rate)
- 0xf797...0bf2 — Yes, $8,782 (48% win rate)
- 0xd726...b5c9 — Yes, $8,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x4135...e462 — Yes, $7,389
- 0x52f9...e1c7 — Yes, $7,169 (59% win rate)
- 0x6e37...2849 — Yes, $5,140 (83% win rate)
- 0xb223...156b — Yes, $4,900
- 0xbf96...9942 — No, $3,797 (74% win rate)
- 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $3,560 (67% win rate)
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