Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a general, non-weather-related closure of all commercial aviation through Iranian airspace or the Tehran FIR by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market currently shows one tracked smart-money signal, with a recent bettor adding to No; live market odds determine the implied probability.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,306.

Categories: Iran, close, U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

18-wallet funded cluster backs Yes

Surface the coordinated Yes position: 18 wallets share a funder, while the featured bettor added to an existing position; the bettor's strong win rate is tempered by high average winning odds.

  • 18 wallets share a funder, and the cluster has $1,010 positioned on this market.
  • The bettor added $1,010 to an existing Yes position and has resolved 219 bets with an 80% win rate.
  • Yes has recently risen, though the trader's 49¢ entry is now 45¢ and the market resolves in 2027.

$1,010 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Four-wallet cluster adding to No

Four wallets added $28.4K to No within minutes amid a 252x volume spike, making this coordinated directional flow worth surfacing despite modest wallet histories.

  • Four wallets added $28,429 to No in a short burst, with each already holding a No position.
  • The activity came with a 252x spike over historical volume, suggesting unusually strong conviction in No.

$28,429 on No

Six-market event positioning

The wallet has positioned $53,774 across six related markets and made a $2,975 No purchase exceeding this market’s 24-hour volume, though its win rate does not clearly beat its average winning entry odds.

  • This wallet has placed $53,774 across six markets tied to the same event.
  • It has won 18 of 25 resolved bets, but its 72% win rate does not clearly exceed its average winning entry price of 76%.
  • The $2,975 No buy at 75¢ was larger than this market’s $2,571 in 24-hour volume.

$5,725 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Six-market event positioning

The wallet has positioned $53,774 across six related markets and made a $2,975 No purchase exceeding this market’s 24-hour volume, though its win rate does not clearly beat its average winning entry odds.

  • This wallet has placed $53,774 across six markets tied to the same event.
  • It has won 18 of 25 resolved bets, but its 72% win rate does not clearly exceed its average winning entry price of 76%.
  • The $2,975 No buy at 75¢ was larger than this market’s $2,571 in 24-hour volume.

$2,975 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Serial cross-market bettor adds to No

A consistently active and profitable cross-market trader is adding $2,167 to an existing No position while taking the same view across four markets in this event.

  • This bettor is up $57,000 across 123 resolved trades and has a 72% win rate.
  • The wallet is backing No across four markets in the same event, with $41,190 committed.
  • This is an addition to an existing No position, bought at 75¢ while the market now prices No at 78¢.

$2,167 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

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Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

Iran full airspace closure by...?$40,306 tracked5 signalsIrancloseU.S. x IranIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
36¢
No
64¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
69¢
64¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

2026-10-23 18:36 UTC

$1,010 on Yes at 49¢

49¢→36¢↓13¢

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

2026-10-23 08:23 UTC

$28,429 on No at 60¢

60¢→64¢↑4¢

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

2026-10-07 05:02 UTC

$5,725 on No at 75¢

75¢→64¢↓11¢

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

2026-10-01 15:30 UTC

$2,975 on No at 75¢

75¢→64¢↓11¢

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

2026-08-25 10:53 UTC

$2,167 on No at 75¢

75¢→64¢↓11¢

Related Theses