Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
This Polymarket asks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of May 2026. It resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch reports a 7-day moving average of Arrivals of Ships at 60 or higher for any date before or on May 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders use this market to price geopolitical and shipping disruption risk tied to Iran, oil flows, and regional stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,536.
Categories: transit, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Hormuz, Macro Geopolitics, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, ships, Economy, China, Iran
Notable Trades
94% win-rate bettor
A bettor with an exceptional 94% win rate and strong historical edge just bought No at 61¢ in a news-driven geopolitical market after a sharp one-day move.
- This bettor wins 94% of their resolved trades across 564 bets and is up $62.5k lifetime
- They bought No at 61¢ in a geopolitical market after the Yes side fell 27.5 points in a day
- Entry at 61¢ suggests they still see value even after the market moved, with decent liquidity and a tight 1¢ spread
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
15-wallet funded cluster
A proven profitable cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster bought Yes at 45¢, adding coordinated conviction in a sizeable geopolitical shipping market.
- This wallet has won 69% of 354 resolved bets and is up about $279k lifetime
- 15 wallets funded by the same source have been tracked before, pointing to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 45¢ in a market with over $118k of 24-hour volume, suggesting they see normal traffic returning as better than a coin flip
$8,286 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Proven cross-market bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate bought No at 41¢ in a rising geopolitical market, offering a notable contrarian follow signal.
- This bettor has won 69% of 545 resolved markets across 374 events.
- They bought No at 41¢ even after this market jumped 28 points in a week.
- The market is active and liquid, so this looks like a deliberate view rather than a random thin-market punt.
$1,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $22,805 (69% win rate)
- 0x5714...8ac9 — Yes, $22,370
- 0x3906...7556 — Yes, $19,046 (40% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $16,227 (62% win rate)
- 0x1c14...0869 — No, $15,290 (59% win rate)
- 0x2501...7e28 — No, $13,781
- 0x8495...b6e8 — Yes, $11,874 (50% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $10,917 (71% win rate)
- 0x83e8...7b89 — No, $10,000
- 0x51f5...2e8d — Yes, $9,711
