Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
74 signals across 1 market · $395,784 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal levels by the end of May 2026, based on IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls. Traders are betting on whether the metric reaches at least 60 arrivals, with smart money split across Yes and No clusters as geopolitical, oil, and shipping-risk narratives evolve.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 20-wallet No cluster
Large 20-wallet cluster is buying No with $69.7K on a real-world shipping-data market, supported by a repeat new whale and several profitable high-volume traders despite some opposing Yes flow.
$69,652Score: 17.3 - 19-wallet Yes cluster
A 19-wallet, partially linked cluster just put $135k on Yes during a 102x volume spike, making this small trade notable as part of a strong coordinated thesis rather than on its own.
$1,196Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 12.8 - 19-wallet linked Yes cluster
A linked 19-wallet cluster is piling into Yes during a massive volume spike, and this new wallet's sell of No is equivalent to buying Yes around 44¢.
$1,064Score: 12.8 - 15-wallet funded cluster
A proven profitable cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster bought Yes at 45¢, adding coordinated conviction in a sizeable geopolitical shipping market.
$8,286Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - 17-wallet sharp cluster
A profitable serial cross-market bettor from a 17-wallet linked cluster bought Yes at 47¢ as this market trends higher, making it a credible directional signal despite the moderate ticket size.
$2,667Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - Profitable linked macro trader
A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader with a 70% win rate is buying Yes at 47¢ on a news-sensitive geopolitics market, and the wallet is linked to another funded account also active in the same flow.
$2,391Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - 9-wallet Yes cluster
A proven profitable serial cross-market trader joined a 9-wallet linked cluster buying Yes into a major volume spike, reinforcing a coordinated bullish thesis on this market.
$1,918Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 10.3 - New whale in NO cluster
Surface: a repeat new-wallet large bettor joined a 5-wallet one-sided NO cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market, and the trade is already moving in their favor.
$6,000Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 8.3 - 93% winner buys reversal
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on Strait traffic normalization at 12¢.
$6,600Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 8.0 - 19-wallet funded cluster
A 19-wallet shared-funder cluster is repeatedly positioning on the No side, though the individual wallet has a weak short record and the market is highly liquid.
$1,084Wallet win rate: 33%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$28,718 · 1 market · 17 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x2e0b70…8070$27,880 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xc0ff6a…9953$27,635 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$19,331 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 69% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$17,177 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$16,386 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xf284ad…b9f9$16,185 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 89% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$12,683 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x4478d7…02a4$12,562 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 59% wins
- 0x3a8aa3…7699$12,150 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 63% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by the end of May?
The live Polymarket odds reflect the market's current implied probability that IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship arrivals for the Strait of Hormuz before May 31, 2026. Check the event page for the latest price, movement, and liquidity.
What is smart money doing in this Strait of Hormuz market?
PolySpotter is tracking $319,866 in smart money activity across 57 signals for this event. Recent alerts show both a 20-wallet No cluster and multiple Yes clusters, including linked Yes wallets and a profitable linked macro trader, suggesting active disagreement among sharper accounts.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
The market resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date from market creation through May 31, 2026. If that threshold is not met, it resolves to No.
Why are traders watching Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for oil and global shipping, so disruptions or normalization can matter for energy prices, macro risk, and geopolitics involving Iran, the U.S., China, and broader Middle East tensions.
When will the Strait of Hormuz traffic market end?
The event is scheduled to resolve by May 31, 2026, but it can resolve earlier if IMF Portwatch publishes data showing the required 7-day moving average of arrivals at or above 60.