Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
57 signals across 1 market · $319,866 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 20-wallet No cluster
Large 20-wallet cluster is buying No with $69.7K on a real-world shipping-data market, supported by a repeat new whale and several profitable high-volume traders despite some opposing Yes flow.
$69,652Score: 17.3 - 19-wallet linked Yes cluster
A linked 19-wallet cluster is piling into Yes during a massive volume spike, and this new wallet's sell of No is equivalent to buying Yes around 44¢.
$1,064Score: 12.8 - 19-wallet Yes cluster
A 19-wallet, partially linked cluster just put $135k on Yes during a 102x volume spike, making this small trade notable as part of a strong coordinated thesis rather than on its own.
$1,196Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 12.8 - 15-wallet funded cluster
A proven profitable cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster bought Yes at 45¢, adding coordinated conviction in a sizeable geopolitical shipping market.
$8,286Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - Profitable linked macro trader
A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader with a 70% win rate is buying Yes at 47¢ on a news-sensitive geopolitics market, and the wallet is linked to another funded account also active in the same flow.
$2,391Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - 17-wallet sharp cluster
A profitable serial cross-market bettor from a 17-wallet linked cluster bought Yes at 47¢ as this market trends higher, making it a credible directional signal despite the moderate ticket size.
$2,667Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - 9-wallet Yes cluster
A proven profitable serial cross-market trader joined a 9-wallet linked cluster buying Yes into a major volume spike, reinforcing a coordinated bullish thesis on this market.
$1,918Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 10.3 - New whale in NO cluster
Surface: a repeat new-wallet large bettor joined a 5-wallet one-sided NO cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market, and the trade is already moving in their favor.
$6,000Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 8.3 - 18-wallet funded cluster
High-severity linked-wallet signal: an 18-wallet funded cluster is buying No on a major geopolitical shipping market, though this specific trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
$4,660Wallet win rate: 50%Score: 8.0 - 8-wallet funded No cluster
An 8-wallet funded cluster is adding a $7.5k No position on a geopolitics/shipping market, though the individual wallet's record is not strong.
$7,500Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$28,718 · 1 market · 17 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x2e0b70…8070$27,880 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xc0ff6a…9953$27,635 · 1 market · 1 alert · 62% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$17,177 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$16,944 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 69% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$16,386 · 1 market · 1 alert · 65% wins
- 0x3c4c03…dd95$8,797 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$8,473 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xa2fd59…097a$7,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 55% wins
- 0xb10047…6461$6,902 · 1 market · 1 alert · 57% wins