Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $329,426.
Categories: transit, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Hormuz, Macro Geopolitics, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, ships, Economy, China, Iran
Notable Trades
Repeat new wallet on No
A 2-day-old repeat new wallet has now been flagged 9 times and added $6.6k to No on a major geopolitical shipping market, but there is no proven track record yet.
- A brand-new wallet is making repeated large bets, with $30.5k total flagged across 9 alerts.
- This trade adds $6.6k on No at 90¢, backing continued disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic.
- The market is liquid, but the repeated sizing from a 2-day-old wallet suggests a strong thesis.
$6,598 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
New repeat whale
A 4-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets and has added a $4.3k No position, but its track record is still very limited.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already made 5 positions and $10.3k in flagged bets.
- They put $4.3k on No at 89¢, adding a high-conviction bet in a very liquid market.
- The wallet is only slightly profitable so far, with 2 wins from 3 resolved bets.
$4,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
93% winner buys reversal
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on Strait traffic normalization at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $311.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 35 events, with $319K in similar multi-market positioning.
- Selling No at 88¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, a contrarian bet against the recent drift lower.
$6,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
89% serial cross-market bettor
Surfacing because a highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate is buying No despite the market being liquid and already priced heavily that way.
- This bettor has won 89% of 453 resolved markets across hundreds of events.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.66M tracked across 472 markets.
- The $8.8K buy adds to the market’s current momentum toward No, which is already up after Yes fell 9 points today.
$8,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
New repeat whale buying NO
A 1-day-old repeat whale wallet is building a sizable No position, with $27.6k flagged across recent large bets despite no resolved track record yet.
- A brand-new wallet is already placing repeated large bets, with $27.6k flagged across 8 alerts.
- This trade adds nearly $5k on No at 88¢, backing the current downtrend in a highly liquid market.
- No resolved history yet, so the signal is conviction from size and repeat activity rather than proven wins.
$4,919 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume trader with a long cross-market history is making a fresh $11.4k No bet after previously closing a Yes position.
- This bettor has 1,045 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up about $294k lifetime.
- They have traded across 47 events and $1.17M of related markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven approach.
- This is a fresh $11.4k Buy No at 88¢ after closing an earlier Yes position.
$11,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial trader flips No
Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable record is buying No on a liquid geopolitical shipping market after previously closing a large Yes position.
- This bettor has a deep track record: 1,045 resolved trades, 67% wins, and about $294K profit.
- They have traded across 67 markets and 47 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- They previously had a large Yes position here, but are now buying No at 87¢ as the market has moved against Yes.
$1,243 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
New repeat bettor buying Yes
A 14-day-old repeat large bettor with early profit is effectively buying Yes on the Hormuz traffic market after 21 flagged bets.
- This new wallet has already made 21 large flagged bets totaling $77.6K and is up about $2.5K.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 15¢ while the market has been sliding over the past week.
- The bet is meaningful at $7.65K, though this is a very liquid market with over $1M traded in the last 24 hours.
$7,650 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
New profitable repeat whale
A young repeat high-stakes wallet with early profits is effectively buying Yes on the Hormuz traffic recovery market despite recent negative momentum.
- This new wallet has already put about $70k into flagged trades and is up $2.5k so far.
- Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, against a market that has drifted down 9 points today.
- The wallet has 5 resolved wins and no losses, though the sample is still small and mostly near-certain exits.
$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Serial cross-market flipper
Serial cross-market trader with a very large resolved sample is flipping toward Yes after closing a sizable No position, though lifetime P&L is negative and the bet is modest for this liquid market.
- This bettor has a long track record across 268 markets and wins 75% of resolved bets.
- They previously held a $21K No position here, then switched to buying Yes at 14¢.
- Entry at 14¢ is a contrarian bet after Yes fell 9 points in the past day.
$3,576 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0x73e2...13c3 — Outcome 75845920, $751,996 (100% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Outcome 75845920, $376,372 (55% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 75845920, $324,786 (80% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Outcome 75845920, $324,450 (68% win rate)
- 0xb129...34bf — Outcome 75845920, $203,370
- 0x720b...ae16 — Outcome 75845920, $140,200
- 0x398d...c7c3 — Outcome 75845920, $137,439 (77% win rate)
- 0xc851...cd2a — Outcome 75845920, $137,366 (51% win rate)
- 0xc5d3...d640 — Outcome 75845920, $105,816 (82% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 75845920, $87,336 (4% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace late May
Covers 6 related markets
Iran deal lands late April
Covers 5 related markets
