Part of: Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

This market asks whether Republicans will win the 2026 Senate elections in Iowa and Kansas while losing in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. It resolves based on the listed election results, including any runoffs, with a resolution date of November 3, 2026; current odds were not included in the provided metadata.

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,889.

Categories: Politics, election, US Election, Iowa Midterm, Ohio Midterm, Maine Midterm, Texas Midterm, Alaska Midterm, Kansas Midterm, Michigan Midterm, Senate

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet shared-funder cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are associated with roughly $4,034 of positioning, making the coordinated cluster notable despite the trader's win rate not clearly exceeding their average winning odds.

  • Seven linked wallets are associated with about $4,034 in trades on this market.
  • The featured trade sells Yes at 10¢, equivalent to buying No at 90¢; the wallet's 66% win rate is not clearly above its average winning price.

$4,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Eight-wallet funded cluster adds to No

Eight wallets sharing a funder have accumulated $1,740 on No, with the alerted trader adding to an existing position in a highly liquid market.

  • Eight wallets linked by a shared funder are positioned on the same market, with $1,740 in detected bets.
  • The trader is adding to an existing No position, buying at 87¢ while No is priced around 86¢.
  • The wallet has a large betting history, but its 55% win rate and small lifetime profit do not show a clear edge on their own.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Seven-wallet cluster betting No

A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster and a highly active, profitable trader are aligned on No, though the trader's win rate does not clearly beat their average entry odds.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, with about $4,574 in combined bets.
  • This trader has made 333 resolved trades and is up $292,115 lifetime, though their 66% win rate alone does not establish an edge.

$3,314 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Eight-wallet funded cluster adds to No

Eight wallets sharing a funder have accumulated $1,740 on No, with the alerted trader adding to an existing position in a highly liquid market.

  • Eight wallets linked by a shared funder are positioned on the same market, with $1,740 in detected bets.
  • The trader is adding to an existing No position, buying at 87¢ while No is priced around 86¢.
  • The wallet has a large betting history, but its 55% win rate and small lifetime profit do not show a clear edge on their own.

$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,648,511
  2. 0xf031...c80c — Yes, $425,729 (89% win rate)
  3. 0x498d...ddd4 — Yes, $300,000 (63% win rate)
  4. 0x44c1...ebc1 — Yes, $261,316 (62% win rate)
  5. 0xfea3...d227 — Yes, $190,793 (57% win rate)
  6. 0xc301...66aa — Yes, $111,427 (71% win rate)
  7. 0x9aeb...2729 — Yes, $100,000 (67% win rate)
  8. 0xf4c9...f88c — No, $67,947 (68% win rate)
  9. 0x712f...9fe6 — Yes, $51,030 (56% win rate)
  10. 0xf68a...5b1b — Yes, $30,090 (56% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran blockade likely persists through 2026

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Ceasefire holds through August

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Neither party controls the Senate

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

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Iran ceasefire holds through December

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Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

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Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

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Fed will hike rates 25 bps

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Ceasefire deal by December 2026

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Bass and Raman both win

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Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?$10,889 tracked4 signalsPoliticselectionUS ElectionIowa MidtermOhio MidtermMaine MidtermTexas MidtermAlaska MidtermKansas MidtermMichigan MidtermSenate
Yes
6¢
No
95¢

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “No”
97¢
84¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

2026-11-02 02:27 UTC

$4,034 on No at 90¢

90¢→95¢↑5¢

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

2026-11-01 04:11 UTC

$1,800 on No at 87¢

87¢→95¢↑8¢

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

2026-10-31 20:27 UTC

$3,314 on No at 88¢

88¢→95¢↑7¢

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

2026-10-31 16:20 UTC

$1,740 on No at 87¢

87¢→95¢↑8¢

Related Theses

Iran blockade likely persists through 2026
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Ceasefire holds through August
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Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Neither party controls the Senate
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Will the Republican Party cont…Will the Democratic Party cont…
Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva…Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …
Iran ceasefire holds through December
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US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …
Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends
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US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Fed will hike rates 25 bps
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Ceasefire deal by December 2026
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…
Bass and Raman both win
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