Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,938.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history bought a long-shot Yes at 5¢.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $786K lifetime.
They have traded across 178 markets and 62 events, suggesting a broad repeatable edge.
Entry at 5¢ is a long-shot position with large upside if the withdrawal announcement happens.

$2,019 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

New wallet scaling fast

A 4-day-old wallet has now triggered 13 large-bet alerts totaling about $55k, adding a small Yes position in a liquid geopolitics market despite no resolved track record yet.

This wallet is only 4 days old but has already placed 13 flagged bets totaling about $55k.
The bet is on the long-shot Yes side at 8¢, implying a high-upside view on withdrawal odds.
No resolved track record yet, so the signal is conviction from a fresh, active wallet rather than proven skill.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable sharp buying long-shot

Surfaced despite a weak alert because the wallet has an 82% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making the trade copy-worthy.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51K lifetime.
They bought the long-shot side at 8¢, implying a high-upside bet if the withdrawal announcement happens.
The wallet has been flagged 48 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.

$2,956 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable sharp buying long-shot

Surfaced despite a weak alert because the wallet has an 82% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making the trade copy-worthy.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51K lifetime.
They bought the long-shot side at 8¢, implying a high-upside bet if the withdrawal announcement happens.
The wallet has been flagged 48 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.

$1,096 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Proven sharp flips Yes

A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical market.

This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up $237K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $7.8M deployed across 93 events.
Selling No at 88¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, a contrarian move versus the market’s 9¢ Yes price.

$1,867 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%