Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $32,148.

Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Diplomacy & Ceasefire, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

A 4-wallet cluster with strong historical performance is reopening a coordinated bearish position across this event, putting $32k into No/SELL as the market moved sharply toward No.

  • Four wallets put $32k on No/SELL together, and one of them wins 92% of resolved bets while another wins 88%.
  • This group has a long cross-market track record: 33 events, 58 markets, $1.9M traded with an 88% win rate.
  • They are re-entering after earlier closed positions on this market, suggesting fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking.

$32,148 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x1cc1...b8df Yes, $324,066 (55% win rate)
  2. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $103,044 (88% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $75,459 (87% win rate)
  4. 0x0042...321e Yes, $32,328 (77% win rate)
  5. 0x302f...a568 Yes, $12,864
  6. 0xddf4...2680 Yes, $11,678 (96% win rate)
  7. 0x2c18...3570 No, $9,595
  8. 0x17ad...a8da Yes, $6,897
  9. 0x25b6...dbba Yes, $6,464
  10. 0xcf6e...b45b No, $6,000

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Resolved$32,148 tracked1 signalMiddle EastIranWorldTrumpIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsDiplomacy & CeasefireIsrael x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

Price History — “No
102¢
100¢
98¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

15d ago

$32,148 on No at 81¢

81¢100¢19¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | PolySpotter