Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether the US and Iran will have an effective 14-day ceasefire by July 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if a qualifying 14-day period without US military action against Iran begins by the deadline; otherwise, it resolves No. Smart money activity currently includes multiple signals backing No, with $6,273 tracked.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

13 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,162.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor trims Yes amid volume surge

A proven 84% bettor with substantial cross-market activity sold Yes amid a 143x volume spike, though the trade appears partly to be trimming a large existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $109,553 in realized P&L.
  • The market saw a 143x historical volume spike, while this wallet sold $3,495 of Yes at 15¢.
  • The wallet still holds $43,000 of Yes, so the sale signals bearish risk reduction but not a fully new No position.

$6,273 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Sharp serial trader sells Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 1,434-position track record sold Yes, while a major volume spike suggests meaningful conviction in No.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 1,434 resolved positions and is up $756,293.
  • The trader sold Yes at 54¢, equivalent to buying No at 46¢.
  • Market volume is running 15.7 times its historical average, reinforcing the directional signal.

$4,685 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

84% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 84% win rate is rotating from an existing Yes position into sizable No exposure, alongside a major volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 38 resolved trades and earned $110,729 in realized P&L.
  • They placed about $7,400 in fresh No buys while also selling part of a large existing Yes position.
  • Trading activity surged to 13.7 times the historical average as the market repriced sharply.

$2,577 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Sharp bettor trims Yes amid volume surge

A proven 84% bettor with substantial cross-market activity sold Yes amid a 143x volume spike, though the trade appears partly to be trimming a large existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $109,553 in realized P&L.
  • The market saw a 143x historical volume spike, while this wallet sold $3,495 of Yes at 15¢.
  • The wallet still holds $43,000 of Yes, so the sale signals bearish risk reduction but not a fully new No position.

$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

93% winner scaling into funded No cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
  • The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.

$1,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp bettor trims Yes amid volume surge

A proven 84% bettor with substantial cross-market activity sold Yes amid a 143x volume spike, though the trade appears partly to be trimming a large existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $109,553 in realized P&L.
  • The market saw a 143x historical volume spike, while this wallet sold $3,495 of Yes at 15¢.
  • The wallet still holds $43,000 of Yes, so the sale signals bearish risk reduction but not a fully new No position.

$3,860 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 84% win rate is rotating from an existing Yes position into sizable No exposure, alongside a major volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 38 resolved trades and earned $110,729 in realized P&L.
  • They placed about $7,400 in fresh No buys while also selling part of a large existing Yes position.
  • Trading activity surged to 13.7 times the historical average as the market repriced sharply.

$7,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Serial trader sells Yes

A serial cross-market trader made a concentrated $2,983 No-side move during an extraordinary 178.8x volume spike, though their 63% record and adverse price movement make this a moderate-conviction signal.

  • This wallet has traded 47 markets across 29 events and deployed $633,100 overall.
  • The $2,983 position arrived during a 178.8x historical volume spike, signaling unusually active positioning.
  • The wallet sold Yes at 36¢ and 19¢, equivalent to buying No at 64¢ and 81¢, but Yes has since risen to 32%.

$2,983 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Sharp bettor trims Yes amid volume surge

A proven 84% bettor with substantial cross-market activity sold Yes amid a 143x volume spike, though the trade appears partly to be trimming a large existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $109,553 in realized P&L.
  • The market saw a 143x historical volume spike, while this wallet sold $3,495 of Yes at 15¢.
  • The wallet still holds $43,000 of Yes, so the sale signals bearish risk reduction but not a fully new No position.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

93% winner scaling into funded No cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
  • The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.

$3,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0x22e4...ef1c No, $63,694 (58% win rate)
  2. 0x53e5...6177 No, $43,084 (44% win rate)
  3. 0x7131...29cc No, $24,986 (73% win rate)
  4. 0x162f...798d Yes, $21,344 (70% win rate)
  5. 0xecaa...77a9 Yes, $17,570 (72% win rate)
  6. 0x7447...a16d Yes, $17,230 (57% win rate)
  7. 0x9e0c...832d Yes, $15,540 (56% win rate)
  8. 0xbd04...fbb0 Yes, $13,107 (73% win rate)
  9. 0x62cf...5826 Yes, $13,099 (64% win rate)
  10. 0xa65c...7997 Yes, $12,500 (63% win rate)

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Brief ceasefire collapses by July's end

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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

3dUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)$47,162 tracked13 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
55¢
No
46¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
62¢
38¢
14¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

1d ago

$6,273 on No at 85¢

85¢46¢39¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

1d ago

$4,685 on No at 46¢

46¢46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

1d ago

$2,577 on No at 74¢

74¢46¢28¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

1d ago

$1,740 on No at 85¢

85¢46¢39¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

1d ago

$1,140 on No at 86¢

86¢46¢40¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

1d ago

$3,860 on No at 85¢

85¢46¢39¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

2d ago

$7,980 on No at 74¢

74¢46¢28¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

2d ago

$2,983 on No at 64¢

64¢46¢18¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

3d ago

$1,200 on No at 85¢

85¢46¢39¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

5d ago

$3,720 on No at 86¢

86¢46¢40¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

9d ago

$3,495 on No at 85¢

85¢46¢39¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

11d ago

$5,510 on No at 78¢

78¢46¢32¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

11d ago

$2,000 on No at 78¢

78¢46¢32¢

Related Theses