Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $339,104.
Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Serial sharp scaling into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 69% of 61 resolved trades and is up $73,450 lifetime.
- They are positioning across three markets in the same event, with $14,775 committed and another $1,402 added to Yes.
- The trade adds to an existing $15,738 Yes position despite the recent price decline, signaling continued conviction.
$3,828 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Serial sharp scaling into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 69% of 61 resolved trades and is up $73,450 lifetime.
- They are positioning across three markets in the same event, with $14,775 committed and another $1,402 added to Yes.
- The trade adds to an existing $15,738 Yes position despite the recent price decline, signaling continued conviction.
$2,742 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$1,424 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$1,335 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp serial trader sells Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with a 1,434-position track record sold Yes, while a major volume spike suggests meaningful conviction in No.
- This bettor has won 82% of 1,434 resolved positions and is up $756,293.
- The trader sold Yes at 54¢, equivalent to buying No at 46¢.
- Market volume is running 15.7 times its historical average, reinforcing the directional signal.
$1,238 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$1,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Six-wallet funded Yes cluster
Six linked wallets are concentrating on Yes, alongside a substantial existing position and strong weekly market momentum, making this coordinated positioning worth monitoring despite mixed trade management.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,139 into the Yes outcome, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This wallet already has $22,321 invested in Yes and is adding around 56–57¢, rather than opening a small isolated position.
- Yes has risen 34.5% over the past week, corroborating the cluster’s direction, though the wallet’s 69% record is not clearly exceptional against its 93¢ average win price.
$6,284 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$6,668 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Six-wallet funded Yes cluster
Six linked wallets are concentrating on Yes, alongside a substantial existing position and strong weekly market momentum, making this coordinated positioning worth monitoring despite mixed trade management.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,139 into the Yes outcome, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This wallet already has $22,321 invested in Yes and is adding around 56–57¢, rather than opening a small isolated position.
- Yes has risen 34.5% over the past week, corroborating the cluster’s direction, though the wallet’s 69% record is not clearly exceptional against its 93¢ average win price.
$2,575 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $263,979 (53% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $84,621 (73% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $66,593 (76% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — No, $44,813 (71% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — No, $22,639 (86% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $21,115 (76% win rate)
- 0x7919...72b2 — No, $20,810 (98% win rate)
- 0x8f42...b88f — No, $16,005 (59% win rate)
- 0xcb58...0160 — No, $14,500 (98% win rate)
- 0x8503...abdd — No, $14,126 (54% win rate)
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