US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
117 signals across 4 markets · $737,725 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the U.S. and Iran see an “effective ceasefire” by August 31, defined as a continuous 14-day period without qualifying U.S. military action against Iran. PolySpotter has tracked $2,921 in smart-money activity, including a recent signal from a serial cross-market buyer taking the No side.
Markets (4)
Top trades across all markets
- 28-wallet cluster betting against Yes
A 28-wallet, partially linked cluster has concentrated No exposure despite Yes rising to 80%, creating a strong contrarian flow signal, though the featured wallet is actively managing a mixed position.
$21,076Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 13.0 - 39-wallet cluster backing Yes
A heavily funded two-sided-looking cluster is effectively concentrated in Yes, with $150,523 of buying and a sharp 16-point daily price rise.
$150,523Score: 11.8 - Funded cluster betting against Yes
A seven-wallet, six-wallet-funder cluster committed $17.8K to No, including two strongly profitable bettors, although the market has since moved sharply against the position.
$17,778Score: 11.2 - Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
$2,508Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 10.0 - Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
$2,010Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 10.0 - Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
$1,655Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 10.0 - Six-wallet funded Yes cluster
Six linked wallets are concentrating on Yes, alongside a substantial existing position and strong weekly market momentum, making this coordinated positioning worth monitoring despite mixed trade management.
$2,774Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 9.7 - 93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$1,335Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6 - 93% winner adds to No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding to an existing No position, alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$1,515Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6 - 93% winner adds to No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding to an existing No position, alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe23495…304a$97,200 · 4 markets · 25 alerts · 65% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$88,845 · 3 markets · 20 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$64,293 · 2 markets · 20 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xa65c87…7997$41,116 · 1 market · 8 alerts · 60% wins
- 0x524db8…4495$17,311 · 2 markets · 8 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$13,768 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$11,093 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 61% wins
- 0xf55927…f462$11,076 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 91% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$11,023 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x9592ad…a7b8$8,974 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 72% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran effective ceasefire odds on Polymarket?
The odds come from traders pricing whether a 14-day pause in qualifying U.S. military action against Iran happens by the August 31 deadline. This event hub tracks the active Polymarket outcome and related smart-money signals.
What does this US-Iran ceasefire market resolve on?
It resolves Yes if there is a continuous 14-day period, starting within the market window, during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran. If that condition is not met by the deadline, it resolves No.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,921 in smart-money activity across this event. The latest notable alert was a serial cross-market No buyer, suggesting at least one experienced trader is positioning against the ceasefire condition being met.
When does the US-Iran effective ceasefire market resolve?
The listed resolution deadline is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, subject to the market’s rules and any official Polymarket resolution guidance.