US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
10 signals across 4 markets · $53,349 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the U.S. and Iran see an “effective ceasefire” by August 31, defined as a continuous 14-day period without qualifying U.S. military action against Iran. PolySpotter has tracked $2,921 in smart-money activity, including a recent signal from a serial cross-market buyer taking the No side.
Markets (4)
Top trades across all markets
- 9-wallet funded No cluster
A linked 9-wallet cluster is adding coordinated No exposure, though the wallets’ individual track records are mixed and the market is not near resolution.
$5,510Score: 9.7 - 9-wallet funded cluster backing No
A 9-wallet funded cluster is aligned on the No side of a geopolitical market, with this wallet adding another $2,000 to an existing position despite the outcome already trading at 78¢.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 30%Score: 7.7 - Linked cluster buying NO
Surfacing because a profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to NO alongside a 4-wallet linked cluster buying the same side.
$1,399Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 7.5 - Profitable cross-market No cluster
Five wallets bought $17.2k of No, including several profitable serial cross-market traders with strong resolved records on event markets.
$17,240Score: 6.8 - Linked wallets buying NO
Coordinated No buying by three wallets, including linked funding and two large profitable serial cross-market traders, makes this geopolitical position worth surfacing.
$8,598Score: 6.1 - Sharp bettor trims Yes amid volume surge
A proven 84% bettor with substantial cross-market activity sold Yes amid a 143x volume spike, though the trade appears partly to be trimming a large existing Yes position.
$3,495Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 4.9 - Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market bettor is adding meaningful size to No on a geopolitics market that has already moved in their favor.
$8,358Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.1 - Serial cross-market No buyer
Experienced high-volume cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
$1,907Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 3.0 - Serial cross-market No buyer
Experienced high-volume cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
$2,921Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 3.0 - Serial cross-market No buyer
Experienced high-volume cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
$1,920Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$9,757 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 61% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$6,748 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$3,495 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0x8251d7…879d$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 30% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran effective ceasefire odds on Polymarket?
The odds come from traders pricing whether a 14-day pause in qualifying U.S. military action against Iran happens by the August 31 deadline. This event hub tracks the active Polymarket outcome and related smart-money signals.
What does this US-Iran ceasefire market resolve on?
It resolves Yes if there is a continuous 14-day period, starting within the market window, during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran. If that condition is not met by the deadline, it resolves No.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,921 in smart-money activity across this event. The latest notable alert was a serial cross-market No buyer, suggesting at least one experienced trader is positioning against the ceasefire condition being met.
When does the US-Iran effective ceasefire market resolve?
The listed resolution deadline is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, subject to the market’s rules and any official Polymarket resolution guidance.