Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,477.
Notable Trades
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
A 9-day-old wallet has already made six sizable flagged bets totaling $28.5k and just took a fresh $3.5k position against the market favorite in a major geopolitics market.
- This 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts and put up $28.5k total
- They just bought the cheaper side at 34¢ by selling No, a clear bet that conflict cools sooner than the market expects
- The market is active but not extremely deep, so a $3.5k order still shows real conviction
$3,477 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $100,030 (72% win rate)
- 0x52b7...4597 — Yes, $59,341
- 0x88c4...129a — Yes, $44,971
- 0x3541...462e — Yes, $44,135 (47% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $31,829
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $22,970 (88% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Yes, $22,345 (55% win rate)
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $18,000 (40% win rate)
- 0x8cce...5c11 — No, $14,992
- 0xe54d...fdec — No, $14,035