Part of: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $168,178.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
74% winner re-entering Yes
A proven high-volume wallet with a 74% win rate is re-entering this conflict market after previously closing a large position, while also expressing the same thesis across four related event markets.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up $235k overall
- They have put $87.7k across 4 related markets in this event, showing a repeated thesis
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier $40.7k Yes position, now buying again at 89¢
$4,432 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable event trader returns
A high-volume, historically profitable wallet is making a fresh cross-market bet on the same conflict event, buying Yes at 90¢ after previously closing an earlier position.
- This bettor has won 74% of 317 resolved markets and is up about $235k lifetime
- They put $52k across 4 related conflict markets, showing a clear event-wide thesis
- This is a fresh buy after closing an earlier position, with $13.7k added here at 90¢
$13,667 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
14-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader from a 14-wallet linked cluster bought Yes at 79¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this coordinated sharp flow worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades and is up $1.25M across more than 1,000 resolved bets
- 14 linked wallets share the same funder, and this wallet is part of a broader repeat pattern across 98 events
- They bought Yes at 79¢ in a high-volume geopolitics market after a 32.7-point weekly move, showing continued conviction rather than a random whale bet
$10,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable event-thesis trader
A proven profitable high-volume trader with 1,065 resolved bets is building a cross-market thesis on this conflict event and bought before the market moved from 70¢ to 77¢.
- This bettor has 1,065 resolved bets, wins 57% of them, and is up $284k lifetime
- They are trading 3 markets tied to the same conflict event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
- Bought Yes at 70¢ and the market is now 77¢, so the position is already moving their way
$1,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
88% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 88% win-rate wallet with over $1.1M P&L bought Yes at 59¢ and the market has already moved to 81%, reinforcing that this is a sharp cross-market thesis worth following.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
- They trade heavily across related markets — 5 markets in this event and 141 markets across 89 events
- Bought Yes at 59¢ and the market is now 81¢, showing a strong move in their favor
$3,520 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable 88% win-rate wallet is expressing a cross-market geopolitical thesis here by effectively buying No at 23¢, making this a sharp bettor signal worth surfacing despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
- They have been building the same thesis across 6 related markets with $175k total tracked flow
- Selling Yes at 77¢ is equivalent to buying No at 23¢, a cheap entry against a market that has already surged 31.8% this week
$3,369 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Proven geopolitical repeat bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 1,000+ resolved bets reopened a large Yes position in a major geopolitics market despite already having traded it successfully before.
- This bettor has 1,017 resolved bets, wins 66% of them, and is up about $225k overall
- They bet across 30 events and put $70.9k into related markets here, suggesting a deliberate event-wide view
- This is a fresh $5.4k buy at 87¢ in a liquid market after previously closing a winning position on the same market
$5,407 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation failed
$2,018 | Wallet win rate: 46%
Pro conflict-event specialist
Profitable high-volume trader with a 74% win rate is re-entering this market and related conflict markets, suggesting a deliberate cross-market thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up about $225k overall
- They placed $65k across 4 related markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis
- This is a fresh re-entry into Yes at 85¢ after previously closing a large position, signaling renewed conviction
$4,465 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate is reopening a Yes position in this major geopolitical market at 81¢ after previously trading both sides successfully.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $411k across 179 settled markets.
- They have traded 52 related markets across 27 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-driven markets.
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 81¢ in a liquid news market after earlier closed positions, signaling renewed conviction.
$2,181 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x7d43...6d78 — No, $200,136
- 0xebae...fb79 — No, $193,400 (43% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $151,889 (72% win rate)
- 0xe885...38ef — No, $145,000 (43% win rate)
- 0xab33...fed6 — No, $140,069
- 0x8cce...5c11 — No, $97,038 (95% win rate)
- 0xe7f4...bc90 — No, $84,000 (30% win rate)
- 0x523a...8e28 — No, $75,000 (39% win rate)
- 0x8d5e...66a4 — No, $72,000
- 0x7158...5439 — No, $65,053 (100% win rate)
