Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $34,863.

Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Diplomacy & Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable event specialist

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly 1,000 resolved bets and $298k profit is taking a fresh low-price position on the same geopolitical event, making this worth monitoring despite the modest ticket size.

  • This bettor has 986 resolved bets and is up about $298k overall
  • They trade related markets repeatedly across 45 events, which suggests an event-driven edge
  • Bought Yes at 4¢, a cheap asymmetric position if conflict de-escalation happens sooner than the market expects

$1,379 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

An 87%-win-rate, highly active cross-market trader with over $500k in profit is making a fresh $5.9k bet on No in a major geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $519k overall
  • They have traded 419 markets across 193 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No around 84¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, signaling confidence that the conflict will not meet the April 15 peace condition

$5,907 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

A bettor with a 97% win rate is putting $20,000 into No on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite only one signal firing.

  • This bettor wins 34 of 35 resolved trades and is up $11.2k overall
  • They just put $20k on No at 84¢ in a major geopolitical market with over $300k of 24h volume
  • Buying at 84¢ suggests they see the current 82¢ price as still slightly cheap

$20,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

A proven high-volume bettor with an 81% win rate is making a fresh cross-market conflict bet, buying No at 82¢ across multiple related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 816 of 1,005 resolved markets and has tracked the same event across 4 related markets
  • They bought No at 82¢, a high-confidence position that this conflict will not meet the market's 14-day peace condition by April 15
  • This wallet has placed $340k across 529 markets in 480 events, so this looks like a repeatable event-trading pattern rather than a one-off punt

$4,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

A 9-day-old wallet has already made six sizable flagged bets totaling $28.5k and just took a fresh $3.5k position against the market favorite in a major geopolitics market.

  • This 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts and put up $28.5k total
  • They just bought the cheaper side at 34¢ by selling No, a clear bet that conflict cools sooner than the market expects
  • The market is active but not extremely deep, so a $3.5k order still shows real conviction

$3,477 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1cc1...b8df Yes, $395,480 (55% win rate)
  2. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $311,178 (66% win rate)
  3. 0x7158...5439 No, $258,177 (100% win rate)
  4. 0x9648...6825 No, $178,640 (71% win rate)
  5. 0x7d43...6d78 No, $159,617
  6. 0x52b7...4597 Yes, $59,341 (63% win rate)
  7. 0xe67b...03ac No, $46,733
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $45,012 (87% win rate)
  9. 0xa022...77f8 Yes, $43,342 (73% win rate)
  10. 0x3e5b...073b No, $42,825 (92% win rate)

Related Theses

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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

7d$34,863 tracked5 signalsMiddle EastIranWorldTrumpIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIsrael x IranDiplomacy & Ceasefire
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

Price History — “No
98¢
86¢
75¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

2d ago

$1,379 on Yes at 4¢

4¢10¢6¢

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

5d ago

$5,907 on No at 84¢

84¢90¢6¢

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

6d ago

$20,000 on No at 84¢

84¢90¢6¢

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

6d ago

$4,100 on No at 82¢

82¢90¢8¢

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

13d ago

$3,477 on Yes at 34¢

34¢10¢24¢

Related Theses

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | PolySpotter