Part of: Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $83,580.

Categories: World Elections, Global Elections, Politics, Elections, India, Main Election, Indian Elections

Notable Trades

New wallet chasing breakout

A repeat new wallet flipped into Yes amid a major 14.4x volume surge and sharp price breakout, though its track record is still weak.

A 25-day-old wallet has now placed about $19.6K in flagged bets and is buying Yes after the market surged.
This market saw a 14.4x volume spike and Yes jumped 79 points in a day, suggesting a major shift in positioning.
The wallet previously closed a No position here and has now flipped to Yes at 86¢.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable serial political trader

Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Yes into a major volume spike and rapid price move on a high-volume political market.

This bettor has a strong track record: 68% wins across 805 resolved bets and about $770K in profit.
The market saw a 27x volume spike and Yes jumped 79 points in the last day, suggesting broad momentum behind the same view.
Entry at 86¢ is expensive, but the trader is buying after a major move rather than taking profits.

$1,284 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable serial trader riding surge

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes during a major TVK price surge with a 27.6x volume spike and rapid upward price impact.

This bettor wins 68% of resolved trades and is up about $770K lifetime.
They bought $6.3K of Yes at 76¢ as TVK jumped more than 70 points in a day.
The market saw a 27.6x volume spike and an 11-point rapid move, suggesting strong momentum behind the trade.

$6,276 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable serial trader joins surge

Experienced profitable cross-market trader bought into a sharp Yes momentum move after a 27.6x volume spike, though the individual trade size is modest versus market volume.

This bettor has traded 445 markets across 264 events and is up about $69.7k lifetime.
The market saw a 27.6x volume spike and Yes jumped about 11 points in 4 minutes.
Entry at 76¢ came before the market moved to 79¢, following a massive 1-day surge.

$2,280 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

High-win bettor fading rally

High-win wallet is fading a massive one-day rally with cross-market positioning, though the trade is relatively small versus current volume.

This bettor has won 86% of 1,008 resolved trades and is profitable overall.
They are fading a huge 68-point one-day rally, selling Yes at a 27¢ No-equivalent entry.
The same wallet has $14.4k positioned across two related election markets.

$1,306 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Four-wallet fade of price spike

Coordinated wallets faded a huge TVK Yes spike with $21.8k of effective No buying, though part of the flow was profit-taking from earlier cheap Yes positions.

Four wallets put $21.8k on No after TVK Yes surged more than 58 points in a day.
The trade is already moving their way, with No rising from about 23¢ entry to 34¢ now.
One bettor in the cluster is up $137k lifetime, and another has won all 5 resolved bets for $25.8k profit.

$21,834 on No

Five-wallet fade after surge

Five wallets put $13.3k on No during a huge volume spike, fading an extreme one-day move, though some flow may be profit-taking rather than fresh conviction.

Five wallets put $13.3k on No as the market saw a 48x volume spike.
The trade fades a huge move: Yes jumped about 77 points in a day, pushing No down near 16¢.
One large bettor is only 3 days old, suggesting fresh conviction rather than an established track record.

$13,271 on No

New whale riding election surge

A repeat-flagged new wallet put $7k on Yes amid a 50x volume spike and major price breakout in a political election market.

A 25-day-old wallet added $7k after already being flagged 8 times for large bets.
Market volume spiked nearly 50x while Yes jumped about 26 percentage points in the alert window.
Entry around 81¢ suggests the bettor is still willing to pay up after a major move.

$7,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Coordinated YES surge

High-score alert driven by coordinated one-sided YES buying, a repeat new-wallet bettor, a 48x volume spike, and a sharp price move on a political market.

Five wallets bought the same side, putting about $21k behind YES, with two wallets sharing a funder.
This new wallet has now triggered 7 large-bet alerts and bought $5k of YES at 79¢.
Market activity spiked 48x above normal and YES has moved sharply higher, suggesting strong momentum.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

5-wallet YES surge

Coordinated Yes-side flow from 5 wallets, including linked funding, coincides with a 48x volume spike and a massive price move in a plausible political market.

Five wallets are all betting Yes, with $20,981 in one-sided flow and two sharing a funder.
This bettor effectively bought Yes at 51¢ before the market moved to 76¢.
Volume is 48x normal and TVK’s odds are up 68 points in a day.

$1,750 on Yes

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 39464750, $311,690
0xa388...d84e — Outcome 39464750, $64,086 (70% win rate)
0x8f1a...cf0a — Outcome 39464750, $16,000
0x3fab...1b0c — Outcome 39464750, $12,041
0xadae...92ca — Outcome 39464750, $10,008
0xb1e6...4394 — Outcome 39464750, $8,672
0x8dc0...c3a5 — Outcome 39464750, $5,000
0xd151...85ea — Outcome 39464750, $5,000
0xe976...71e8 — Outcome 39464750, $5,000
0x72a1...60a1 — Outcome 39464750, $4,830

Related Theses

Peru elects right-wing president

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Hilton advances, Steyer falls short

Covers 2 related markets

Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

ResolvedTamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner$83,580 tracked12 signalsWorld ElectionsGlobal ElectionsPoliticsElectionsIndiaMain ElectionIndian Elections

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Notable Trades