Part of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi will attend a qualifying senior-level, in-person diplomatic meeting between US and Iranian representatives by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only if he attends a formal negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations; PolySpotter tracks $2,561 in smart money and one recorded signal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,561.

Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Serial trader buys No in thin market

A serial cross-market trader with a large, concentrated No position moved this thin market from roughly 82% to 90%, though their historical edge is modest.

  • This trader has participated in 75 events across 94 markets and is up $103,558 overall.
  • The $2,561 No purchase represented 52.5% of 24-hour volume in a market with only $5,073 liquidity.
  • No has risen from the 82¢ entry to about 90¢, indicating the trade moved with the market.

$2,561 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $2,100 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x28bc...12f7 Yes, $976
  3. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $631
  4. 0xeab6...d4c6 Yes, $300
  5. 0xc7d0...1f8a Yes, $194
  6. 0xd9fe...db0d No, $155
  7. 0x1ee9...197f Yes, $142 (64% win rate)
  8. 0x41e6...66b7 No, $130
  9. 0x4c9a...0cd4 No, $100
  10. 0xc4d5...87cf No, $100 (51% win rate)

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Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

110dWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?$2,561 tracked1 signalIranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
18¢
No
82¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
86¢
83¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

20h ago

$2,561 on No at 82¢

82¢82¢

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