Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
12 signals across 7 markets · $106,611 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2027
This Polymarket event tracks whether Jared Kushner will attend a formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is monitoring $20,670 in smart money across the event, including a recent three-wallet No conviction cluster.
Markets (7)
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?2 signals · $66,822 tracked
- Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?1 signal · $20,670 tracked
- Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?5 signals · $10,095 tracked
- Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?1 signal · $3,344 tracked
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?1 signal · $3,150 tracked
- Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?1 signal · $1,343 tracked
- Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?1 signal · $1,188 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Four-wallet No conviction cluster
Four wallets simultaneously committed $33.6K to No in an exceptionally thin market, with several showing strong historical win rates.
$33,616Score: 6.4 - Four-wallet coordinated No exit
Four wallets moved $33,206 simultaneously in a thin market, creating an unusually large coordinated exit from No despite limited evidence of exceptional individual skill.
$33,206Score: 6.4 - Three-wallet No conviction cluster
Three wallets simultaneously added $20.7K to No, creating a large coordinated position in a thin market despite only modest track records.
$20,670Score: 5.2 - Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader made a large No bet in a relatively thin market, though the entry is near the current market price.
$1,343Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.3 - Serial event trader shifts toward Yes
A profitable, highly active trader is taking a sizeable Yes-equivalent position while also betting across seven markets in the same event.
$1,188Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 4.2 - Profitable serial trader adding to No
A profitable, highly active trader added to a substantial No position and has traded five markets tied to the same event, while the thin market has since moved further toward No.
$1,256Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 3.7 - Serial cross-market trader backing No
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader reopened a sizable No position and placed more than half of the market’s 24-hour volume into it.
$3,150Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 3.7 - Serial trader adding to No
A serial cross-market trader added a $3.3k No position in a quiet market and had $15.6k of exposure across five related markets.
$3,344Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 3.7 - Profitable serial trader adding to No
A profitable, highly active trader added to a substantial No position and has traded five markets tied to the same event, while the thin market has since moved further toward No.
$1,528Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 3.7 - Serial trader buys No in thin market
A serial cross-market trader with a large, concentrated No position moved this thin market from roughly 82% to 90%, though their historical edge is modest.
$2,561Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 3.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x1ee9a5…197f$17,776 · 4 markets · 8 alerts · 63% wins
- 0x433723…8882$1,343 · 1 market · 1 alert · 74% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran peace talks attendance odds?
This event tracks Yes and No outcomes for whether Jared Kushner attends a qualifying formal US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026. Check the live Polymarket market for the current prices and implied probabilities.
What is the prediction market about?
The market resolves Yes if Jared Kushner attends an official, senior-level in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round involving representatives of both the United States and Iran before the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves No.
What is smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $20,670 in smart money and one signal for this event. The latest alert reports a three-wallet No conviction cluster.
When does this US-Iran prediction market resolve?
The market resolves after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time, with the event deadline listed as January 1, 2027, at 4:59 AM UTC.