Part of: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Live Yes and No odds can change as traders react to geopolitical developments, with resolution based on a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $445,428.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Middle East, Israel, Iran, Trump, World, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$25,667 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$488k P&L bought No at 84¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $488k lifetime.
- They have traded across 60 related markets and 29 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 84¢ implies they see low odds of a U.S. invasion before 2027.
$52,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$3,383 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$1,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$1,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$1,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$1,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$8,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$8,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 397-bet history is buying No during a volume spike, though the entry is a high-priced favorite.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $259k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 94 events and $8.2M of detected volume.
- The market saw a 14x volume spike, and this trade backs No at 88¢ after Yes fell 5% today.
$1,992 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x696d...f89d — Yes, $1,565,424 (86% win rate)
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Yes, $1,056,379 (26% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $913,474 (90% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $819,221 (81% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $587,452 (91% win rate)
- 0x950e...f8e5 — Yes, $400,000 (83% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — No, $393,991 (91% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $389,013 (69% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $370,470 (64% win rate)
- 0x8b4b...541b — No, $325,000 (84% win rate)
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