Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,032.

Notable Trades

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

A proven profitable bettor with a 77% win rate and nearly $46k in profit is buying No at 40¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible directional signal worth surfacing.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $45.9k on nearly $987k invested
  • They trade heavily across related news markets — 122 markets across 81 events suggests a real macro thesis process
  • Bought No at 40¢ while the market still prices Yes at 62%, implying they see the invasion risk as materially overstated

$3,032 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf9d5...fba3 Yes, $76,218
  2. 0xcf19...6402 No, $75,067
  3. 0x7c3d...5c6b No, $41,940 (39% win rate)
  4. 0x8837...b369 No, $41,540
  5. 0xbe07...c2fe Yes, $30,819
  6. 0xc623...9afd Yes, $27,658
  7. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $26,276
  8. 0x9f09...2848 Yes, $21,459 (41% win rate)
  9. 0xa720...e62c Yes, $21,302
  10. 0x9b54...5e38 Yes, $20,490 (73% win rate)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolves in 276d$3,032 tracked1 signal
GeopoliticsPoliticsMiddle EastIsraelIranTrumpWorldMilitary Strikes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Yes63¢
No38¢
Price History — “Yes
68¢
57¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction
24h Volume
$142.8K
Liquidity
$142.6K
Spread
1.0¢
Smart Flow
100% No

Notable Trades

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

2d ago

$3,032 on No at 40¢

40¢38¢2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | PolySpotter