Part of: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $3,650 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with recent alerts showing multiple sharp and clustered flows backing “No.” The market resolves based on a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $256,842.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Middle East, Israel, Iran, Trump, World, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
89% serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate bought $3.65k of No on a major geopolitics market, making the wallet track record the key signal despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 89% of 453 resolved trades across hundreds of markets.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with $2.36M invested and positive lifetime profit.
- The $3.65k buy on No aligns with the market favorite at 73¢, suggesting a lower-risk copy of a proven wallet.
$3,650 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
New repeat whale
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets and has now bought Yes on a major geopolitical market, though it has no resolved track record yet.
- This wallet is less than 1 day old but has already made 5 flagged large bets totaling $17.1K.
- It bought $2.0K of Yes at 27¢, adding to a fresh pattern of high-conviction positioning.
- The market is liquid, so the signal is mainly the new wallet’s repeated sizing rather than price impact.
$2,001 on Yes
91% win-rate cross-market sharp
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate bought $8.4k of No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $777k lifetime.
- They have traded across 36 events and 52 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- An $8.4k No buy at 75¢ backs the view that a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 is overpriced.
$8,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% cross-market sharp
Surface this because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate bought nearly $9k of No during a notable volume spike.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $777k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.5M traded across 52 markets and 36 events.
- The $9k No buy came during a 17x volume spike, while the market is still priced with meaningful uncertainty.
$8,971 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% sharp buys No
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and $786k profit bought nearly $11k of No amid elevated market volume.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $786k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.5M across 52 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- They bought $11k of No while market volume was running 11.3x above its historical average.
$10,974 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a large long-run sample is effectively buying Yes amid an 11x volume spike, though lifetime P&L is negative.
- This bettor has traded 269 markets across 140 events and wins 75% of resolved bets.
- The trade is effectively a Yes buy at 27¢, matching a market that has moved up 5 points today.
- Volume is running 11x above its normal pace, suggesting fresh attention on this outcome.
$2,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
91% winner buys Yes
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and $786k profit is effectively buying Yes on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $786k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.5M tracked across 52 related markets.
- Selling No at 72¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 28¢, matching a recent 6-point move toward Yes.
$2,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% cross-market sharp
Serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and +$786k P&L is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $786k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 36 events with nearly $1.5M in flagged activity.
- Selling No at 72¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 28¢, matching the current market price after a 6-point daily move.
$3,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% win-rate cross-market sharp
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on a major geopolitical market, though the position size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $784K lifetime.
- They have traded across 33 events and 49 markets, suggesting a broad cross-market edge.
- Selling No at 72¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 28¢, matching the current market price.
$1,440 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% serial cross-market sharp
Serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on a major geopolitical market, though the position size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $785K lifetime.
- They have traded across 33 events and 49 markets, suggesting a broad repeatable edge.
- Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢ on a major geopolitical outcome.
$3,646 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $942,500 (91% win rate)
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Yes, $851,032 (26% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $834,234 (88% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $819,221 (81% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — No, $565,944 (95% win rate)
- 0x950e...f8e5 — Yes, $400,000 (83% win rate)
- 0xa9fe...f135 — Yes, $269,365 (62% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $256,838 (64% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — No, $235,786 (56% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $229,769 (43% win rate)
