Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
169 signals across 1 market · $963,660 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to control any portion of Iran before the end of 2026. PolySpotter is monitoring the Yes/No prediction market, where recent smart-money alerts have highlighted multiple No clusters, a profitable whale backing No, and a smaller Yes wallet cluster.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 11-wallet linked Yes cluster
High-conviction coordinated Yes flow: 11 wallets, including a linked-funder group, put nearly $99k into a market already seeing a major volume and price spike.
$98,570Score: 14.0 - 8-wallet funded Yes cluster
Strong coordinated-funder signal: a repeat new-wallet bettor with positive P&L bought $9.5k of Yes, backed by an 8-wallet shared-funder cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market.
$9,500Wallet win rate: 9%Score: 13.5 - Sharp bettor joins No cluster
A highly profitable 86% win-rate trader joined a 6-wallet, $41k one-sided move into No during a major volume spike, making this a strong signal worth surfacing.
$2,797Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 13.1 - 15-wallet No cluster
A proven high-win-rate trader joined a 15-wallet one-sided push into No on this geopolitics market, adding strong coordinated-flow confirmation despite the modest single-ticket size.
$2,760Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 13.0 - Six-wallet NO flow
Six wallets put $72.7k on No during a 28x volume spike, with several profitable repeat traders supporting the same direction.
$72,656Score: 11.5 - Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$8,170Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 11.5 - 13-wallet cluster buys No
A historically profitable serial cross-market trader from a 13-wallet funded cluster just opened a fresh $5.6k No position in a liquid geopolitics market at 45¢, suggesting coordinated conviction after the market sold off over the past week.
$5,568Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - 7-wallet No flow
Seven wallets put about $50k behind the No side, with the move already pushing Yes down 4 points, though conviction is tempered by mixed flow and no clearly sharp wallet.
$50,030Score: 9.9 - Sharp cluster buying No
A profitable 79% win-rate bettor joined a 6-wallet, $41k one-sided push into No during a major volume spike, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth surfacing.
$12,200Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 9.1 - Sharp wallet in 15-wallet cluster
A highly profitable wallet with a 77% win rate joined a 15-wallet one-sided cluster buying No, creating a strong coordinated signal on a major geopolitical market.
$3,450Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 9.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x88c491…129a$126,144 · 1 market · 30 alerts · 88% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$101,028 · 1 market · 14 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$45,935 · 1 market · 21 alerts · 87% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$40,353 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$38,146 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 69% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$35,184 · 1 market · 16 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$26,136 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$19,600 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 87% wins
- 0x6edfbe…1011$17,463 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$14,711 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 67% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds that the U.S. invades Iran before 2027?
The live odds move with trading in the Yes and No markets. PolySpotter tracks those changes alongside smart-money activity so you can see whether informed wallets are leaning toward an invasion or no invasion before 2027.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran invasion market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show stronger activity on the No side, including a 15-wallet No cluster, a profitable whale backing No, and six-wallet No flow. There has also been a 4-wallet Yes cluster, so both sides have seen notable positioning.
How will this market resolve?
It resolves Yes if the U.S. commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves No, based on a consensus of credible sources.
When does the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 market end?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on events through December 31, 2026. If the qualifying invasion criteria are not met by then, the market should resolve No.
Why use PolySpotter for this Polymarket event?
PolySpotter adds context beyond the headline odds by tracking whale bets, profitable traders, and wallet clusters across the event, helping you see where notable prediction-market money is flowing.