Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
69 signals across 1 market · $703,307 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 4-wallet Yes cluster
A $60.8k coordinated Yes position, including a $54.7k No sale equivalent to buying Yes around 23¢, is notable despite mixed wallet track records because multiple wallets are moving the same way on a serious geopolitical market.
$60,837Score: 14.1 - Sharp bettor joins No cluster
A highly profitable 86% win-rate trader joined a 6-wallet, $41k one-sided move into No during a major volume spike, making this a strong signal worth surfacing.
$2,797Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 13.1 - 15-wallet No cluster
A proven high-win-rate trader joined a 15-wallet one-sided push into No on this geopolitics market, adding strong coordinated-flow confirmation despite the modest single-ticket size.
$2,760Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 13.0 - Profitable whale backs NO
A large one-sided No cluster is led by a highly profitable whale, with $240k flowing into No during a 73x volume spike on a geopolitics market.
$240,884Score: 11.9 - Six-wallet NO flow
Six wallets put $72.7k on No during a 28x volume spike, with several profitable repeat traders supporting the same direction.
$72,656Score: 11.5 - Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$8,170Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 11.5 - 13-wallet cluster buys No
A historically profitable serial cross-market trader from a 13-wallet funded cluster just opened a fresh $5.6k No position in a liquid geopolitics market at 45¢, suggesting coordinated conviction after the market sold off over the past week.
$5,568Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - Sharp cluster buying No
A profitable 79% win-rate bettor joined a 6-wallet, $41k one-sided push into No during a major volume spike, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth surfacing.
$12,200Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 9.1 - Sharp wallet in 15-wallet cluster
A highly profitable wallet with a 77% win rate joined a 15-wallet one-sided cluster buying No, creating a strong coordinated signal on a major geopolitical market.
$3,450Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 9.0 - 87% win-rate geopolitical sharp
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate and nearly $420k in profit bought Yes at 31¢ after a sharp recent price drop, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the market’s high liquidity.
$5,170Wallet win rate: 22%Score: 9.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$59,594 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$32,964 · 1 market · 15 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$23,010 · 1 market · 1 alert · 65% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$19,600 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x6edfbe…1011$17,463 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$12,964 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xbc43a2…1540$12,200 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0x8f7a4b…db40$10,300 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 77% wins
- 0x8b7101…8044$9,760 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 89% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$8,942 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 74% wins