Part of: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026. It resolves based on a consensus of credible sources, with $1,399 in smart money tracked and recent alerts showing both Yes and No wallet clusters, including notable No-side activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $243,138.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Middle East, Israel, Iran, Trump, World, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
90% winner buying contrarian Yes
Despite a weak volume-spike signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has a strong 90% resolved-bet record and is effectively buying Yes at 18¢.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $288K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 18¢ after the market moved lower recently.
- Entry at 18¢ implies a high-upside contrarian bet if they see invasion risk as underpriced.
$1,804 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
90% winner buying No
Surfacing because this is a proven serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate and $704k lifetime profit buying No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $704k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 38 events with $1.7M tracked volume.
- They bought No at 73¢, adding a sharp-money signal against a U.S. invasion before 2027.
$3,544 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
91% win-rate geopolitical bettor
Surface because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $715k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.7M placed across 61 markets.
- Selling No at 70¢ is effectively buying Yes at 30¢, after Yes moved up 4 points today.
$1,399 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
91% winner buying Yes
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and $733k profit is effectively buying Yes on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $733k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 38 events with $1.7M in tracked activity.
- Selling No at 74¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 26¢, a bet that U.S. invasion risk is underpriced.
$7,395 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Proven serial trader
Proven serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a modest single-trade size.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $213K lifetime.
- They have traded across 82 events with $6.8M in total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 78¢ backs the lower-risk No side on a highly liquid market.
$1,462 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Proven cross-market winner
Surfacing because a highly experienced cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite this being a liquid market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 353 resolved trades and is up $213K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 82 events with $6.7M in tracked volume.
- Buying No at 78¢ suggests they expect the invasion odds to keep fading.
$7,474 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long track record is buying No amid a fresh volume spike, though the trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor has 1,054 resolved trades and is up $313k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 52 events and 79 markets.
- Buying No at 77¢ aligns with a 12.5x volume spike in this market.
$6,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 52-event history is buying No on a major geopolitical market, though the individual bet is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor is up $314K lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved bets.
- They have traded 52 related events and $1.3M in cross-market positions, suggesting a repeatable macro thesis process.
- Entry at 72¢ was better than the current 74¢ market price.
$3,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes with a $10.6k position on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor has 1,054 resolved trades and is up $314k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 52 events and 77 markets.
- Selling No at 71¢ is the same as buying Yes around 29¢.
$10,651 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp wallet exits YES
Sharp positive-P&L wallet sold its Yes exposure during a volume spike, making the equivalent copy trade a Buy No at 72¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $27.4K lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 28¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 72¢.
- Market activity is elevated, with a 19.4x volume spike versus its historical average.
$1,408 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $999,325 (90% win rate)
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Yes, $851,032 (26% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $824,356 (87% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $819,221 (81% win rate)
- 0xa9fe...f135 — Yes, $493,048 (62% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — No, $489,924 (90% win rate)
- 0x950e...f8e5 — Yes, $400,000 (83% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — No, $225,642 (40% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $220,091 (63% win rate)
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — Yes, $210,158 (100% win rate)
