Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This Polymarket asks whether the United States will begin a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026. It is not about any strike or clash alone—the market requires an offensive intended to control territory in Iran. Recent smart money activity highlighted in this market has leaned toward No, with multiple alerts noting sharp and cluster buying on that side.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
28 smart money signals detected, totaling $206,976.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Middle East, Israel, Iran, Trump, World, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
New whale buying Yes
A 1-day-old wallet has already made eight sizable positions and just bought $6.8k of Yes in a major geopolitics market, suggesting repeat high-conviction activity despite limited track record.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already made 8 sizable bets and has been flagged 7 times for aggressive early activity
- They just put $6.8k into Yes at 33-34¢, a price that implies they think the odds are meaningfully too low
- This is a liquid geopolitics market with a recent 7.5-point daily move, so fresh directional buying is more notable than routine noise
$6,825 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
New whale buying Yes
A 1-day-old wallet has already put nearly $28k across 8 positions and just added a $5.6k bet on Yes in a major geopolitics market, suggesting high-conviction early activity despite limited track record.
- This 1-day-old wallet has already made 8 positions and nearly $28k in flagged bets
- It just bought $5.6k of Yes at 32-33¢ in a major geopolitics market with over $1.2M traded today
- The wallet is too new to trust its record yet, but the fast repeat sizing points to strong conviction
$5,619 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
New whale buying YES
A 1-day-old wallet has already put over $25.8k into flagged bets and just added a fresh $5k YES position here, making it a notable high-conviction new-wallet bet despite limited proof of edge so far.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts and put $25.8k into flagged positions
- This is a fresh $5k buy into YES at 31-32¢, showing clear conviction rather than profit-taking
- The market is deep and active, so this stands out more for the wallet's aggressive early sizing than for moving price
$5,020 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
5-wallet Yes cluster
Five wallets are lining up on Yes, including a high-volume bettor with an 84% win rate, and this trade flips out of a prior No position into the bullish side after a sharp price drop.
- Five wallets bought the same side for $13.6k total, a strong one-way flow signal
- This wallet wins 84% of resolved bets across 1,014 markets and has traded 922 events
- The trade sold No at 66¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 34¢, right after the market fell 26 points in a day
$4,146 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
5-wallet Yes cluster
Five wallets piled into Yes on a major geopolitics market, and this newer wallet is repeatedly making sizable bets into the move after a sharp price drop.
- Five wallets bought Yes together for $13.6k, a strong one-sided bet on a major geopolitics market
- This wallet is only 24 days old and has already been flagged twice for large bets, suggesting repeat conviction
- They bought at 34¢ after the market fell 26 points in a day, betting the selloff went too far
$1,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
87% win-rate geopolitical sharp
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate and nearly $420k in profit bought Yes at 31¢ after a sharp recent price drop, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the market’s high liquidity.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $420k across 269 resolved markets
- They bought Yes at 31¢ after this market fell 25.5 points in a day, suggesting they see the selloff as too extreme
- Their track record spans 95 events and 132 markets, so this looks like a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
$5,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
3-wallet geopolitical cluster
Three profitable wallets all piled into Yes for $22.3k right after a sharp selloff, suggesting coordinated conviction on a liquid geopolitical market.
- Three wallets all bought Yes within minutes for $22.3k total, including one bettor up $2.1M lifetime.
- Two of the wallets have strong records, including 75% and 71% win rates across 24 and 618 resolved bets.
- They entered around 25-27¢ after this market fell 30 points in a day, signaling they may view the drop as overdone.
$7,105 on Yes
Profitable geopolitical cross-market bettor
A proven profitable cross-market trader with a 74% win rate bought No at 71¢ in a major geopolitics market that has already moved to 78¢.
- This bettor has won 693 of 941 resolved trades and is up about $108k lifetime
- They trade across 202 related markets and 118 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven process
- They bought No at 71¢ and the market is now 78¢, so the move has already gone their way
$1,107 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
97% win-rate bettor
A wallet with an exceptional 97% win rate is buying No in a major geopolitics market during a notable volume surge, making this a modest but credible follow signal.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up about $20.4k across 66 bets
- They bought No at 77¢ in a high-volume geopolitics market after a 12.9x activity spike
- The market has dropped sharply in the last day, and this trade backs the now-favored No side
$1,410 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
77% win-rate cross-market bettor
A high-volume veteran wallet with a 77% win rate is taking the contrarian No side here via a Yes sale, making this worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades across 982 markets and has deployed about $1.3M total
- Selling Yes at 60¢ is equivalent to buying No at 40¢, a clear contrarian stance against the market favorite
- The market is deep and active, so this looks like a deliberate opinion from a proven trader rather than noise
$1,009 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $264,894 (66% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $153,550 (75% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — No, $139,997 (66% win rate)
- 0x6edf...1011 — Yes, $136,294 (86% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $104,284 (85% win rate)
- 0x7401...87c5 — Yes, $82,449
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $80,112 (71% win rate)
- 0x87d2...efb2 — Yes, $69,529 (75% win rate)
- 0xd44e...67e2 — No, $60,182 (61% win rate)
- 0x5ecd...0787 — No, $60,000 (40% win rate)
