Part of: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This prediction market tracks whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran before 2027. It resolves based on a consensus of credible sources by December 31, 2026, and PolySpotter is tracking $2,076 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent Yes and No wallet clusters.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $226,597.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Middle East, Israel, Iran, Trump, World, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 397-bet history is buying No during a volume spike, though the entry is a high-priced favorite.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $259k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 94 events and $8.2M of detected volume.
- The market saw a 14x volume spike, and this trade backs No at 88¢ after Yes fell 5% today.
$2,076 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
88% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$488k P&L bought No at 84¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $488k lifetime.
- They have traded across 60 related markets and 29 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 84¢ implies they see low odds of a U.S. invasion before 2027.
$80,943 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial event trader
Experienced cross-market trader with a large profitable history is effectively buying Yes at 13¢ amid a notable volume spike, though the bet size is modest versus market liquidity.
- This bettor has traded 236 markets across 115 events and is up $117K lifetime.
- Selling No at 87¢ is the same as buying Yes at 13¢, a tail-risk bet on U.S. action before 2027.
- Market volume is running 17.9x above its historical average, suggesting fresh attention around this outcome.
$4,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
Experienced cross-market trader with a large profitable history is effectively buying Yes at 13¢ amid a notable volume spike, though the bet size is modest versus market liquidity.
- This bettor has traded 236 markets across 115 events and is up $117K lifetime.
- Selling No at 87¢ is the same as buying Yes at 13¢, a tail-risk bet on U.S. action before 2027.
- Market volume is running 17.9x above its historical average, suggesting fresh attention around this outcome.
$1,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$4,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$488k P&L bought No at 84¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $488k lifetime.
- They have traded across 60 related markets and 29 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 84¢ implies they see low odds of a U.S. invasion before 2027.
$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable sharp buying longshot
Surfaced because a profitable sharp wallet with a 76% record and +$18.6k P&L is buying Yes despite only a modest single signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $18.6k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 14¢, a longshot entry that implies a high-upside view.
- The market is liquid and politically meaningful, making a proven wallet’s directional bet worth tracking.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
87% winner backing No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 87% historical win rate sold Yes, effectively backing No, though this looks like an exit from an older Yes position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $160K lifetime.
- Selling Yes at 13¢ is equivalent to buying No at 87¢.
- This appears to reduce an older Yes position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh bet.
$2,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
88% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$488k P&L bought No at 84¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $488k lifetime.
- They have traded across 60 related markets and 29 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 84¢ implies they see low odds of a U.S. invasion before 2027.
$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial event trader
Experienced cross-market trader with a large profitable history is effectively buying Yes at 13¢ amid a notable volume spike, though the bet size is modest versus market liquidity.
- This bettor has traded 236 markets across 115 events and is up $117K lifetime.
- Selling No at 87¢ is the same as buying Yes at 13¢, a tail-risk bet on U.S. action before 2027.
- Market volume is running 17.9x above its historical average, suggesting fresh attention around this outcome.
$8,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Yes, $1,056,379 (26% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $899,615 (88% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $819,221 (81% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $474,808 (90% win rate)
- 0x8b4b...541b — No, $433,747 (81% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — No, $433,073 (89% win rate)
- 0x950e...f8e5 — Yes, $400,000 (83% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $371,236 (64% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $317,601 (58% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $303,824 (69% win rate)
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