Part of: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes or No using a consensus of credible sources; current metadata reports $1,260 in tracked smart-money activity across one signal, but does not include a live probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $522,431.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Middle East, Israel, Iran, Trump, World, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$1,260 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$2,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$488k P&L bought No at 84¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $488k lifetime.
- They have traded across 60 related markets and 29 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 84¢ implies they see low odds of a U.S. invasion before 2027.
$12,966 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$8,093 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp bettor cuts huge Yes position
A historically high-win-rate bettor exited $138,789 of Yes exposure during a 356x volume spike, though the existing large Yes position makes this a partial loss-cutting trade rather than a clean new No bet.
- This bettor has won 86% of 65 resolved positions, with 56 wins at roughly 50¢ average odds.
- The $138,789 Yes sale represented 63% of the market’s 24-hour volume and coincided with a 356x historical volume spike.
- The wallet still holds a much larger Yes position, so this is stronger as a meaningful reduction in conviction than a fresh all-in No signal.
$138,789 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable sharp buying longshot
Surfaced because a profitable sharp wallet with a 76% record and +$18.6k P&L is buying Yes despite only a modest single signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $18.6k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 14¢, a longshot entry that implies a high-upside view.
- The market is liquid and politically meaningful, making a proven wallet’s directional bet worth tracking.
$3,886 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable serial event trader
Experienced cross-market trader with a large profitable history is effectively buying Yes at 13¢ amid a notable volume spike, though the bet size is modest versus market liquidity.
- This bettor has traded 236 markets across 115 events and is up $117K lifetime.
- Selling No at 87¢ is the same as buying Yes at 13¢, a tail-risk bet on U.S. action before 2027.
- Market volume is running 17.9x above its historical average, suggesting fresh attention around this outcome.
$3,320 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Serial trader scales into No
A serial cross-market trader is adding to an already substantial No position during a 20x volume spike, though the trader's 61% win rate offers only moderate support.
- This trader has participated across 143 markets and 67 events, with $1.2M in tracked trading volume.
- The $3,700 purchase adds to an existing $66,000 No position as market activity reaches 20 times its historical average.
- The No entry at 74¢ implies the trader sees roughly a 26% chance of a U.S. invasion before 2027.
$4,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$25,667 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$488k P&L bought No at 84¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $488k lifetime.
- They have traded across 60 related markets and 29 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 84¢ implies they see low odds of a U.S. invasion before 2027.
$52,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Yes, $1,056,379 (26% win rate)
- 0x696d...f89d — Yes, $858,151 (86% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $850,295 (90% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $819,221 (81% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $591,706 (92% win rate)
- 0x950e...f8e5 — Yes, $400,000 (83% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — No, $388,841 (91% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $370,470 (64% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $325,005 (76% win rate)
- 0xc4d1...8ce8 — No, $250,000 (69% win rate)
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