Part of: Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether Lebanon will officially recognize Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” only if there is formal government recognition, not merely an announcement of intent, and PolySpotter tracks the market’s live odds and smart money activity, including $1,029 in tracked smart money so far.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,029.
Categories: Syria, Yemen, Israel, Geopolitics, Middle East
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader bought No and the market has already moved in their direction.
- This bettor is up about $1.09M across 969 resolved bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 65 events and 119 markets.
- They bought No at 76¢, and the market has already moved to about 82¢.
$1,029 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $5,289 (63% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $1,831 (48% win rate)
- 0x6286...f59c — Yes, $1,428
- 0x57b0...76f4 — No, $1,270 (79% win rate)
- 0x2c7a...6875 — Yes, $1,204
- 0x45b2...cbc1 — No, $1,052 (15% win rate)
- 0x7495...7fcf — Yes, $864
- 0xea0d...5866 — Yes, $801 (72% win rate)
- 0xedf0...a1d3 — No, $696 (95% win rate)
- 0xc18b...3917 — Yes, $555
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