Part of: Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,306.
Categories: Oil, Naval, Geopolitics, Hormuz, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran
Notable Trades
Serial trader scales into No
A serial cross-market trader with 650 resolved bets and an 80% win rate added $3,306 to an existing No position in a thin market, making this a meaningful conviction signal despite limited edge versus average win prices.
- This bettor has won 80% of 650 resolved bets across 42 events and 56 markets.
- They added $3,306 to an existing No position, with the trade exceeding the market’s flagged $879 24-hour volume.
- The position was built around 79¢, implying confidence that No remains highly likely through July 2026.
$3,306 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
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