Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This prediction market asks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will receive the second-most valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026. It resolves based on the official first-round vote ranking, with ties broken alphabetically by candidates’ last names. PolySpotter is tracking $1,298 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,216.

Categories: Brazil, Politics, World, Global Elections, Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Profitable serial bettor adding

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding a large Yes position in a very quiet Brazilian election market.

  • This bettor has won 89% of 175 resolved bets and is up about $555k lifetime.
  • The $6.9k buy was over 13x this market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position, bringing total invested to roughly $15.5k around 80¢.

$1,298 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial bettor adding

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding a large Yes position in a very quiet Brazilian election market.

  • This bettor has won 89% of 175 resolved bets and is up about $555k lifetime.
  • The $6.9k buy was over 13x this market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position, bringing total invested to roughly $15.5k around 80¢.

$6,858 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

97% winner fading favorite

Sharp wallet with a 97% resolved win rate is fading the current 78% Yes price, making this a copy-worthy BUY No signal despite modest trade size.

  • This bettor has won 102 of 105 resolved trades and is up $3.8K lifetime.
  • They are betting against the 78% favorite, effectively buying No at 22¢.
  • Their past wins beat market prices by about 25 points, suggesting a real edge.

$1,811 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

97% winner fading favorite

Sharp wallet with a 97% resolved win rate is fading the current 78% Yes price, making this a copy-worthy BUY No signal despite modest trade size.

  • This bettor has won 102 of 105 resolved trades and is up $3.8K lifetime.
  • They are betting against the 78% favorite, effectively buying No at 22¢.
  • Their past wins beat market prices by about 25 points, suggesting a real edge.

$1,017 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Sharp political cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $690k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.9M bet across 77 markets and 41 events.
  • The $1.2k buy was large versus recent activity and entered at 69¢ before the market moved to 74¢.

$1,233 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $41,730
  2. 0xeb49...693e Yes, $15,944 (89% win rate)
  3. 0x7f9e...3a0e Yes, $10,234 (90% win rate)
  4. 0x875c...bdec Yes, $5,619
  5. 0xd79a...7e51 Yes, $4,686 (63% win rate)
  6. 0x88c4...129a Yes, $3,786 (89% win rate)
  7. 0x6fd4...4fa0 Yes, $3,454 (72% win rate)
  8. 0x6139...6b7a No, $3,268 (71% win rate)
  9. 0xfacc...14f1 Yes, $1,498
  10. 0xd999...c9e7 Yes, $1,400

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Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

74dBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place$12,216 tracked5 signalsBrazilPoliticsWorldGlobal ElectionsElectionsInternational Election Props
Yes
79¢
No
21¢

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Price History — “Yes
86¢
82¢
77¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

7d ago

$1,298 on Yes at 80¢

80¢79¢1¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

7d ago

$6,858 on Yes at 80¢

80¢79¢1¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

17d ago

$1,811 on No at 22¢

22¢21¢1¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

19d ago

$1,017 on No at 22¢

22¢21¢1¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

27d ago

$1,233 on Yes at 69¢

69¢79¢10¢

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