Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will receive the second-most valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026. It resolves based on the official first-round vote ranking, with ties broken alphabetically by candidates’ last names. PolySpotter is tracking $1,298 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,216.
Categories: Brazil, Politics, World, Global Elections, Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Profitable serial bettor adding
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding a large Yes position in a very quiet Brazilian election market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 175 resolved bets and is up about $555k lifetime.
- The $6.9k buy was over 13x this market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, bringing total invested to roughly $15.5k around 80¢.
$1,298 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial bettor adding
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding a large Yes position in a very quiet Brazilian election market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 175 resolved bets and is up about $555k lifetime.
- The $6.9k buy was over 13x this market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, bringing total invested to roughly $15.5k around 80¢.
$6,858 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
97% winner fading favorite
Sharp wallet with a 97% resolved win rate is fading the current 78% Yes price, making this a copy-worthy BUY No signal despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 102 of 105 resolved trades and is up $3.8K lifetime.
- They are betting against the 78% favorite, effectively buying No at 22¢.
- Their past wins beat market prices by about 25 points, suggesting a real edge.
$1,811 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
97% winner fading favorite
Sharp wallet with a 97% resolved win rate is fading the current 78% Yes price, making this a copy-worthy BUY No signal despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 102 of 105 resolved trades and is up $3.8K lifetime.
- They are betting against the 78% favorite, effectively buying No at 22¢.
- Their past wins beat market prices by about 25 points, suggesting a real edge.
$1,017 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $690k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.9M bet across 77 markets and 41 events.
- The $1.2k buy was large versus recent activity and entered at 69¢ before the market moved to 74¢.
$1,233 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $41,730
- 0xeb49...693e — Yes, $15,944 (89% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — Yes, $10,234 (90% win rate)
- 0x875c...bdec — Yes, $5,619
- 0xd79a...7e51 — Yes, $4,686 (63% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — Yes, $3,786 (89% win rate)
- 0x6fd4...4fa0 — Yes, $3,454 (72% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — No, $3,268 (71% win rate)
- 0xfacc...14f1 — Yes, $1,498
- 0xd999...c9e7 — Yes, $1,400
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