Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
39 smart money signals detected, totaling $265,820.
Categories: Brazil, Politics, World, Global Elections, Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
New wallet scaling into Yes
A 13-hour-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and is adding to a substantial Yes position, though it has no resolved track record and the market has recently drifted down.
- This 13-hour-old wallet has flagged bets totaling $35,156 across seven alerts.
- It is adding to an existing Yes position, with about $12,000 invested at an average entry near 67¢.
- The market has fallen 6.5% over the past day, so the bet is against recent momentum.
$7,954 on Yes
New wallet scaling into Yes
A 13-hour-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and is adding to a substantial Yes position, though it has no resolved track record and the market has recently drifted down.
- This 13-hour-old wallet has flagged bets totaling $35,156 across seven alerts.
- It is adding to an existing Yes position, with about $12,000 invested at an average entry near 67¢.
- The market has fallen 6.5% over the past day, so the bet is against recent momentum.
$2,975 on Yes
New whale scaling into Yes
A newly created wallet has built a roughly $190K Yes position and added nearly $49K despite the market price falling, alongside a major volume spike.
- This 9-hour-old wallet has invested about $190K on Yes, including a fresh $49K addition.
- The buys came as Yes fell from 69¢ to 60¢, signaling continued conviction despite the move against the position.
- Trading activity was 107 times the market’s historical average, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.
$49,261 on Yes
New wallet scaling into Yes
A very new wallet has built a roughly $100,000 Yes position and is adding substantial size, though it has no resolved track record and is buying near current market odds.
- A wallet less than two hours old has put about $100,000 into this outcome across four flagged bets.
- This trade adds $43,382 to an existing Yes position; the wallet has no resolved bets to establish a track record.
$43,382 on Yes
Profitable serial cross-market trader
An unusually large volume spike and a highly active, lifetime-profitable trader make this bearish positioning worth monitoring, though the wallet's win rate does not establish a clear edge at its average odds.
- The market saw a 156× volume spike versus its historical average, with activity across five trades.
- This trader has made about $211,000 across nearly 10,000 resolved bets, though a 65% win rate at a 75¢ average winning price is not clear evidence of an odds-adjusted edge.
- The sell of Yes converts to a No position at roughly 23¢; the other reported trade price is inconsistent with current odds.
$3,033 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Seven-wallet cluster backs No
A seven-wallet linked cluster and a highly active cross-market trader support a $1,731 bet on No, though the trader's overall win rate is not clearly exceptional relative to entry prices.
- Seven wallets linked by a shared funder are associated with $1,731 in this position.
- The bettor has traded across 72 events and has a 65% win rate, with $91,501 in reported profit.
- The wallet bought No at 31¢ as Yes odds had fallen 7 points over the past day.
$1,731 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
91% winner adding to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor added $9.6K to an existing Yes position at a lower price, making this a notable conviction signal.
- This bettor has won 91% of 190 resolved trades and is up $427K.
- They added $9,586 at 76¢ to an existing Yes position entered at 80¢.
- The wallet has traded across 41 events and 90 markets; the market price is up 6% this week.
$1,053 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
91% winner adding to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor added $9.6K to an existing Yes position at a lower price, making this a notable conviction signal.
- This bettor has won 91% of 190 resolved trades and is up $427K.
- They added $9,586 at 76¢ to an existing Yes position entered at 80¢.
- The wallet has traded across 41 events and 90 markets; the market price is up 6% this week.
$9,586 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp serial bettor buys Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $5,193 purchase on Yes in a Brazilian election market.
- This bettor has won 82% of 283 resolved trades and earned $1.48 million in profit.
- The wallet has a documented edge over implied odds and actively trades across 124 markets and 92 events.
- A $5,193 purchase at 76¢ signals meaningful conviction despite the market already pricing Yes at 78%.
$9,465 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
91% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position, though the modest edge and current 82% odds temper conviction.
- This bettor has won 91% of 163 resolved trades and earned $358,432 in realized P&L.
- They are adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position at 83¢, signaling continued conviction rather than a new speculative entry.
- The trader has positioned across 33 events and 75 markets, making this more notable than an isolated bet.
$1,909 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $418,402
- 0x9cd1...6abd — Yes, $140,554
- 0xdcee...bda5 — Yes, $78,198 (50% win rate)
- 0x0d59...e3e3 — Yes, $64,546
- 0xa26f...91e4 — Yes, $56,531
- 0xe298...784e — Yes, $50,382 (88% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Yes, $39,515 (86% win rate)
- 0x0da9...bb10 — Yes, $21,299
- 0x3665...1e14 — Yes, $20,571
- 0xa33f...3a2c — Yes, $18,967
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