Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,357.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial trader adds to No

A serial cross-market trader with 399 resolved bets is adding $3,000 to an existing No position in a relatively thin market, though the 75% record is not clearly above its typical 82% winning price.

  • This bettor has traded 90 markets across 64 events, with 399 resolved bets and an $87,008 lifetime profit.
  • They added $3,000 to an existing No position at 66¢ in a market with only about $2,150 of detected 24-hour volume.
  • The 75% win rate is solid, but the bettor’s 82¢ average winning entry makes the edge less exceptional than the raw record suggests.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Experienced bettor scaling into No

A proven high-volume bettor is adding substantially to an existing No position in a very thin market, though the historical edge is modest relative to the average winning entry price.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 184 resolved trades and is up $6,471 lifetime.
  • The $1,357 purchase represented 63% of the market’s 24-hour volume and adds to a $2,124 No position.
  • The market is thin with a 6-point spread, while the bettor is also positioned across another market in the same event.

$1,357 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc84f...e0c5 Outcome 53280839, $76,666 (88% win rate)
  2. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 53280839, $75,034 (52% win rate)
  3. 0xdbd0...8c1c Outcome 53280839, $33,948 (16% win rate)
  4. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 53280839, $10,628
  5. 0xe234...304a Outcome 53280839, $10,000 (66% win rate)
  6. 0x8d7a...276f Outcome 53280839, $9,209 (14% win rate)
  7. 0x162f...798d Outcome 53280839, $7,512 (67% win rate)
  8. 0xfb59...83f9 Outcome 53280839, $5,304 (56% win rate)
  9. 0x38f5...6824 Outcome 53280839, $4,881 (47% win rate)
  10. 0x1e5a...935f Outcome 53280839, $2,368 (12% win rate)

Related Theses

Iranian blockade will persist

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Houthis fail to hit shipping

Covers 3 related markets

Fewer than 25 ships will transit

Covers 1 related market

Hormuz ship traffic falls

Covers 1 related market

Claude Fable 5 stays unavailable

Covers 4 related markets

No Iran peace deal

Covers 4 related markets

No foreign intervention in Gaza

Covers 2 related markets

Hormuz traffic will exceed 50 ships

Covers 1 related market

Iran won’t charge Hormuz fees

Covers 2 related markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?

ResolvedUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$4,357 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
68¢
61¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?

15d ago

$3,000 on No at 66¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?

15d ago

$1,357 on No at 64¢

Related Theses