Part of: Nevada Governor Election Winner
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. It resolves based on the official election winner; live market odds were not included in the provided metadata, while tracked smart money totals $1,393 across one signal, with recent activity scaling into No.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $89,256.
Categories: Nevada Midterm, Governor Elections, Midterms, US Election, Politics, Elections, Aaron Ford, Joe Lombardo, Key Governor Races, Governor midterms
Notable Trades
Proven serial trader adding to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 271 resolved trades and a recurring cross-market record is adding to an existing Yes position at 79¢.
- This bettor has won 79% of 271 resolved trades and is up $135,419.
- They have traded across 31 events and are adding to an existing Yes position.
- The trade is at 79¢, near the current 78% odds, after a 10.5-point weekly rise.
$4,620 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Three-wallet Yes cluster with profitable bettor
Three wallets bought $6,051 of Yes together, including a profitable experienced bettor adding to an existing position, though the market already prices Yes at 79%.
- Three wallets bought Yes within minutes, putting $6,051 behind the same outcome.
- One experienced bettor is up $99,275 across 153 resolved markets and added to an existing Yes position.
- The entry was 79¢ with Yes already at 78% odds, so the market is not a low-priced opportunity.
$6,051 on Yes
Proven serial trader adding to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 271 resolved trades and a recurring cross-market record is adding to an existing Yes position at 79¢.
- This bettor has won 79% of 271 resolved trades and is up $135,419.
- They have traded across 31 events and are adding to an existing Yes position.
- The trade is at 79¢, near the current 78% odds, after a 10.5-point weekly rise.
$2,370 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Seven-wallet coordinated Yes position
Seven wallets sharing a funder have built roughly $2,537 of exposure to Yes, making this coordinated positioning notable despite the lead wallet's win rate not clearly exceeding its average winning odds.
- Seven wallets linked by a shared funder have put about $2,537 toward Yes.
- The lead bettor has resolved 327 trades and is up about $270,000, though its 66% win rate is below its 81¢ average winning price.
- Yes has risen 14% over the past week; the alert's entry was 78¢.
$2,537 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial trader adds $32K to large Yes position
A serial cross-market trader added $32K to an existing large Yes position amid a 191x historical volume spike and rising odds, though the wallet’s win rate does not clearly demonstrate an edge at its typical entry prices.
- The trader added about $32K to an existing $51.6K Yes position, showing substantial conviction.
- Trading volume spiked to 191 times the historical average as odds rose about 5.5% in a day.
- This wallet trades across 52 events, but its 72% win rate at an average winning price of 86¢ is not clear evidence of an edge.
$32,019 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Proven bettor adding to Yes
A profitable bettor with 242 resolved bets and an 81% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position, with serial cross-market activity providing further support.
- This bettor has won 81% of 242 resolved bets and is up $75,059 overall.
- They added $2,900 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment in it to over $16,000.
- The wallet trades across 25 events and 29 markets, and its historical win rate exceeds the average odds it paid.
$2,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable bettor scaling up Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 81% win rate added $18.4K to an already substantial Yes position amid an unusual volume spike.
- This bettor has won 81% of 342 resolved trades and is up $1.72M.
- They added $18.4K to an existing $73K Yes position at 53–54¢.
- The four trades coincided with an 84.8× volume spike in a relatively quiet market.
$18,414 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven bettor makes $13.5K Nevada wager
A proven profitable bettor made a concentrated $13.5K Yes purchase at about 52¢, alongside a sharp volume spike in a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor has won 81% of 330 resolved bets and is up $1.57M overall.
- They bought $13,462 of Yes around 52¢—more than six times the market’s recent 24-hour volume.
- Trading activity spiked to 302 times its historical average as the price moved up to 55%.
$13,462 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Large bettor scaling into No
A trader with no proven track record is adding a sizeable No position, making this a meaningful conviction bet in a relatively thin political market.
- This wallet added $3,856 to No after already investing $6,561 at the same 61¢ entry.
- The trade was flagged as vastly larger than the measured recent activity, signaling strong conviction in a market with only $8,789 liquidity.
- There is no resolved-position history or strong track record to independently validate the thesis.
$1,393 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Large bettor scaling into No
A trader with no proven track record is adding a sizeable No position, making this a meaningful conviction bet in a relatively thin political market.
- This wallet added $3,856 to No after already investing $6,561 at the same 61¢ entry.
- The trade was flagged as vastly larger than the measured recent activity, signaling strong conviction in a market with only $8,789 liquidity.
- There is no resolved-position history or strong track record to independently validate the thesis.
$1,633 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $105,214
- 0xc301...66aa — Yes, $85,095 (71% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $79,547 (81% win rate)
- 0xe899...0899 — Yes, $51,630 (72% win rate)
- 0xdc41...dd7e — No, $47,689 (46% win rate)
- 0x9703...69c2 — No, $44,307 (76% win rate)
- 0x7e59...7b8b — No, $24,293 (47% win rate)
- 0x9727...9157 — No, $19,265 (100% win rate)
- 0x98d0...f14a — Yes, $16,541 (74% win rate)
- 0xefac...c9a1 — No, $16,477 (54% win rate)
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