This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.3M lifetime. They have traded 156 markets across 104 events, suggesting a broad repeatable edge. The $9.1k buy pushed No up 15 percentage points, showing meaningful conviction.

Part of: Eurovision Winner 2026

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $86,145.

Categories: Music, Awards, Culture, rewards 100, 4.5, 100, Eurovision

Notable Trades

85% winner buying NO

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate bought $9.1k of No on Australia winning Eurovision 2026.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.3M lifetime.
They have traded 156 markets across 104 events, suggesting a broad repeatable edge.
The $9.1k buy pushed No up 15 percentage points, showing meaningful conviction.

$9,098 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

New repeat whale buying YES

A brand-new repeat whale put $24.6k into the equivalent of Australia Yes, alongside a major volume spike and strong weekly momentum, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

A 2-day-old wallet has now been flagged 11 times, with about $54k in large bets.
This trade put $24.6k toward Australia Yes and came during an 11x volume spike.
Australia’s odds are up 20 points this week, suggesting this bettor is joining strong momentum.

$24,581 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%

Profitable Eurovision thesis

Profitable wallet with a 74% resolved-bet record is building a cross-market Eurovision thesis, buying Australia Yes at 23¢ amid strong weekly momentum.

This bettor has won 74% of resolved trades and is up $56.5K lifetime.
They have $12.7K positioned across 3 Eurovision markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Australia has already moved up about 18% this week, and this entry at 23¢ still offers large upside if their view is right.

$1,413 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp bettor fading rally

A profitable 77% win-rate wallet is buying No on Australia after a sharp rally, making the bettor’s track record the main signal despite modest size.

This bettor has won 77% of resolved bets and is up $2.9K lifetime.
They bought No at 70¢ after Australia’s price rose sharply this week.
The wallet has beaten average implied odds by 22 percentage points across 22 resolved bets.

$1,690 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable sharp fading momentum

A profitable 77% winner is buying No on Australia despite strong recent Yes momentum, making the wallet track record the main signal.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $2.9K lifetime.
They are buying No after Australia’s Yes odds jumped 24 points this week.
Entry at 70¢ suggests a lower-risk fade of a crowded Eurovision move.

$1,327 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Sharp bettor fading Australia

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% record is fading Australia after a big Eurovision price run-up and has broader cross-market Eurovision positioning.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $48.8K lifetime.
They are betting against Australia after its odds jumped 24 points this week.
The wallet has $30K spread across 5 related Eurovision markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp bettor fading Australia

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate is fading Australia after a major Eurovision price run-up, alongside broader cross-market Eurovision positioning.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $48.8K lifetime.
They have $30K spread across 5 Eurovision markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off trade.
Selling Australia at 28¢ is effectively backing No at 72¢ after Australia rose 22.5 points this week.

$1,226 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp bettor fading rally

A proven profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is fading Australia after a major Eurovision price rally and has broader cross-market Eurovision positioning.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $46.8k lifetime.
They are selling Australia after Yes jumped 21 points this week, effectively backing No at 74¢.
The wallet has placed $30.9k across 5 related Eurovision markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,943 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

86% win-rate sharp buyer

A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 86% long-term win rate bought Australia Yes amid strong recent upward price momentum.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $2.1M lifetime.
They have a huge cross-market track record: 357 markets across 274 events.
Australia has moved sharply higher, up 22 points this week, and this wallet bought Yes at 27¢.

$1,442 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Fresh Eurovision whale

A 2-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets is adding to a Eurovision thesis amid strong Australia price momentum.

This brand-new wallet has already placed about $30k in flagged large bets in under 2 days.
It has $20.7k spread across 2 Eurovision markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
Australia has strong momentum, up 9 points today and 20 points this week, and this buy came at 26¢.

$5,301 on Yes