Part of: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket prediction market asks whether Russia will capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if any part of the station icon is shaded red on the ISW map; the provided metadata reports $118,365 in tracked smart money and one signal, but does not include current live odds.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $120,761.
Categories: Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map, Ukraine
Notable Trades
Five-wallet cluster scaling into Yes
Five wallets deployed $118,365 into Yes, including highly profitable serial cross-market bettors, while the price jumped from 87–90% to 96%.
- Five wallets bought $118,365 of Yes in a concentrated burst, representing several times the market’s daily volume.
- The largest bettor has a 72% win rate across 811 resolved bets and is up $309,000 lifetime.
- The coordinated buying pushed Yes from roughly 87–90% to 96%, alongside activity across four related markets.
$118,365 on Yes
85% winner buying Yes
Strong copy-trade candidate: a highly profitable 85% win-rate serial cross-market bettor is buying Yes on a geopolitics market where informed views are plausible.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $1.5M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 28 events with $213K in similar positioning.
- Entry at 77¢ means they still see value despite Yes already being the favorite.
$2,396 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x7a19...fe01 — Outcome 47029152, $60,622 (33% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 47029152, $39,475 (43% win rate)
- 0xf0d5...c665 — Outcome 47029152, $27,438 (93% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 47029152, $15,250 (69% win rate)
- 0xa002...e840 — Outcome 47029152, $12,613
- 0x8b88...5f5e — Outcome 47029152, $12,000 (85% win rate)
- 0xd054...7e38 — Outcome 47029152, $10,848 (78% win rate)
- 0x3a47...ca9e — Outcome 47029152, $7,639
- 0x3594...dc58 — Outcome 47029152, $7,161 (42% win rate)
- 0x3413...8ff2 — Outcome 47029152, $6,747 (97% win rate)
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