US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether authorized US and Iranian representatives will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if an official, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place by 11:59 PM ET on that date; indirect contacts do not count. Traders use this market to follow changing odds around US-Iran diplomacy, geopolitical tensions, and possible negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,402.
Categories: Iran, Kushner, Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Khamenei, Witkoff, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Thin-market contrarian sharp
A profitable bettor with a 72% win rate made a market-dominating $1.4k buy on No in an extremely thin US-Iran meeting market, taking a sharply contrarian view versus current pricing.
- This bettor wins 72% of their resolved trades and is profitable overall.
- Their $1.4k order was 25x the market's 24-hour volume in a market with just $126 of liquidity.
- They bought No at 74¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes's opposite side before the market moved to imply only 13% No.
$1,402 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0xff0c...36ee — No, $1,895 (72% win rate)
- 0x58d4...e1ef — Yes, $953
- 0xe6c2...7f19 — Yes, $942
- 0x09fd...fcaf — No, $395
- 0x46e2...f8bb — Yes, $371
- 0xb3d3...76d1 — No, $317
- 0x0020...16b9 — Yes, $317
- 0xbefa...300d — No, $250
- 0xb7ef...812c — Yes, $170 (88% win rate)
- 0x393b...6899 — Yes, $123
