US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
7 signals across 4 markets · $47,175 tracked · resolves Mar 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting by several April 2026 deadlines. Traders are pricing a range of date-based outcomes, including meetings by April 10, April 11, April 15, and April 30. PolySpotter is tracking $47,175 in smart money across 7 signals, including sharp NO clusters and high win-rate geopolitical traders.
Markets (4)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp 3-wallet NO cluster
Three wallets, including one with an 88% win rate, coordinated into the bearish side of a geopolitics market just as price snapped sharply lower, suggesting informed conviction worth watching.
$5,113Score: 15.6 - Linked sharp wallet cluster
A 6-wallet linked cluster is buying the same side, and this wallet also has an unusually strong 86% hit rate across 22 resolved markets.
$2,846Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 7.6 - 75% win-rate event specialist
A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate across 291 resolved markets is adding a sizable position in a geopolitics event after tracking 56 related events, making this a credible thesis worth following despite the rich price.
$2,737Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 7.0 - 80% win-rate geopolitical trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 80% win rate bought into the bullish side of a geopolitically meaningful market during a major volume spike.
$28,613Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.4 - 83% win-rate event trader
A proven 83% win-rate trader with over $1.0M deployed across 50 related markets bought into a major volume breakout in a geopolitically news-driven market.
$4,965Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - 95% hit-rate geopolitics bettor
A very high-hit-rate wallet with nearly 1,000 resolved bets is adding a cross-market geopolitical position despite weak standalone trade size, making this worth watching mainly for the trader’s track record.
$1,500Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 5.4 - Thin-market contrarian sharp
A profitable bettor with a 72% win rate made a market-dominating $1.4k buy on No in an extremely thin US-Iran meeting market, taking a sharply contrarian view versus current pricing.
$1,402Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x3c4c03…dd95$28,613 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0xa9e64c…1dc2$4,965 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x90e326…0c77$2,846 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$2,737 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0xe61786…f251$1,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0xff0c0d…36ee$1,402 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 2026?
The live odds come from Polymarket trading across the event’s date-based markets. PolySpotter tracks those prices alongside smart money activity so you can see how expectations are shifting across the April 10, April 11, April 15, and April 30 deadlines.
What is the smart money doing on the US-Iran meeting markets?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show several notable signals, including a sharp 3-wallet NO cluster, a linked sharp wallet cluster, and activity from high win-rate geopolitical and event traders. In total, PolySpotter is tracking $47,175 in smart money across this event.
What counts as a diplomatic meeting for this market?
The market is about an official, deliberate diplomatic meeting between authorized representatives of the United States and Iran regarding U.S.-Iran relations. Indirect or unofficial interactions may not qualify unless they meet the market’s resolution criteria.
When do these US-Iran diplomatic meeting markets resolve?
Each child market resolves based on whether a qualifying U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by its listed deadline, such as April 10, April 11, April 15, or April 30, 2026.
Why are there multiple markets for the same U.S.-Iran meeting event?
The event hub groups related prediction markets with different deadlines. That lets traders bet not only on whether a meeting happens, but also on how soon it happens.