Part of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves Yes if Steve Witkoff attends a qualifying formal, senior-level diplomatic meeting between US and Iranian representatives by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Current odds were not included in the supplied metadata; PolySpotter tracks $16,737 in smart money across three signals, with activity on both Yes and No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,737.

Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Bettor scaling into Yes

The wallet added $5,740 to an existing $16,400 Yes position at 35¢ in a very quiet market, showing meaningful conviction despite limited supporting track-record evidence.

  • The bettor added $5,740 to a Yes position already worth $16,400, keeping the entry near 35¢.
  • The market had only $9 in reported 24-hour volume, making this a substantial bet relative to recent activity.
  • The wallet has an 86% record across just 7 resolved bets, so that history is encouraging but still limited.

$5,740 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Whale adding to $23K Yes position

A $3,605 Yes purchase adds to the wallet’s existing $23,300 position in a low-volume geopolitical market, signaling substantial continued conviction despite a weak track record.

  • The bettor added $3,605 to an existing $23,300 Yes position at 35¢.
  • The trade was over 400 times the market’s reported 24-hour volume, though the wallet’s limited record does not establish a clear edge.

$3,605 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Whale adds to sizable No position

A $7,392 No buy adds to the wallet's existing $11,200 position in a very quiet market, though its short track record does not establish a strong edge.

  • The wallet added $7,392 to an existing $11,200 No position, showing substantial conviction.
  • The trade coincided with an unusually large volume spike in a market with just $9 in reported 24-hour volume.
  • The wallet has only nine resolved bets, so its 67% win rate is limited evidence of an edge.

$7,392 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2132...7657 — No, $2,055
  2. 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $1,459 (53% win rate)
  3. 0xda91...9ffd — No, $1,361
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $1,000 (49% win rate)
  5. 0xaad3...e666 — No, $445
  6. 0xa58d...b9b8 — Yes, $444 (43% win rate)
  7. 0xeab6...d4c6 — Yes, $300
  8. 0xd426...334a — No, $212 (51% win rate)
  9. 0x38f5...6824 — Yes, $175 (45% win rate)
  10. 0xd6dd...98ee — No, $120

Related Theses

Qatar attends Iran talks, Witkoff absent

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran talks include both officials

Covers 2 related markets

Both attend US-Iran talks

Covers 2 related markets

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?$16,737 tracked3 signalsIranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
45¢
No
55¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
73¢
63¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-19 08:45 UTC

$5,740 on Yes at 35¢

35¢→45¢↑10¢

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-19 08:50 UTC

$3,605 on Yes at 35¢

35¢→45¢↑10¢

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-19 08:50 UTC

$7,392 on No at 66¢

66¢→55¢↓11¢

Related Theses