Part of: Fed Decision in September?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $516,783.
Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, Politics, Fed, Economy, CPI Release
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A proven, highly profitable serial trader is adding $23,700 to an existing Yes position despite the market already pricing the outcome at 79%.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $142,587 lifetime, with an average winning entry price of 71%.
- They are adding $23,700 to an existing Yes position at 79%, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The wallet has traded across 51 markets and 30 events, suggesting a broad and established forecasting process.
$13,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Sharp bettor adds to Fed hike position
A proven bettor with a 77% win rate and positive edge is adding nearly $8,000 to an existing Yes position in a strongly rising Fed market.
- This bettor has won 239 of 310 resolved trades, with a 77% win rate and $28,591 lifetime profit.
- They added $7,788 to an existing Yes position at 88¢, showing continued conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Yes has risen 35% over the past week, while the market remains highly liquid with over $4.4 million traded in 24 hours.
$3,525 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp bettor scales into Yes
A bettor with a 90% recent win rate added $49,046 to an existing Yes position amid a major volume surge and strong market momentum.
- This bettor has won 90% of 10 resolved trades, with a 29-point edge over average entry odds.
- They added $49,046 to an existing Yes position worth $112,552, signaling increased conviction at 88¢.
- The market is up 35% over the past week while trading volume is running 22.8 times its historical average.
$49,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp bettor adds to Fed hike position
A proven bettor with a 77% win rate and positive edge is adding nearly $8,000 to an existing Yes position in a strongly rising Fed market.
- This bettor has won 239 of 310 resolved trades, with a 77% win rate and $28,591 lifetime profit.
- They added $7,788 to an existing Yes position at 88¢, showing continued conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Yes has risen 35% over the past week, while the market remains highly liquid with over $4.4 million traded in 24 hours.
$7,788 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A recently active wallet is repeatedly scaling into Yes, with a small but perfect early track record, though the market is already priced at 88%.
- This wallet has flagged roughly $19,000 across seven repeat bets and is adding to an existing Yes position.
- It has won all 3 resolved bets and is up $126, but the track record remains too small to establish a durable edge.
- Yes is already priced at 88% after rising 35% in a week, so the remaining upside is limited and entry discipline matters.
$1,628 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable trader scales into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 78% win rate is adding another $11.2K to an existing Yes position despite the market already trading at 88%.
- This bettor has won 78% of 135 resolved trades and is up $24,868 lifetime.
- They added $11,249 to an existing Yes position, showing continued conviction at an 88¢ price.
- The market has risen 34% over the past week, reinforcing the direction of the trade.
$11,249 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
93% winner adds to Yes
A proven 93% winner with a substantial edge is adding $10,005 to an existing Yes position in a highly liquid Fed market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $33,188 lifetime.
- The wallet has beaten implied odds by 21 percentage points across 54 resolved bets.
- It is adding $10,005 to an existing Yes position, reinforcing conviction that the Fed will raise rates 25 bps.
$10,005 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A new, untracked wallet is repeatedly adding a sizable Yes position during a sharp volume and price surge, though it lacks a proven track record.
- This wallet has committed about $15,600 to Yes, including two fresh $2,359 purchases at 84¢.
- The market rose 33% over the past week while trading volume spiked to 15.4 times its historical average.
- There is no resolved-position history, so the conviction is notable but not yet validated by performance.
$7,896 on Yes
New wallet scaling into Yes
A new, untracked wallet is repeatedly adding a sizable Yes position during a sharp volume and price surge, though it lacks a proven track record.
- This wallet has committed about $15,600 to Yes, including two fresh $2,359 purchases at 84¢.
- The market rose 33% over the past week while trading volume spiked to 15.4 times its historical average.
- There is no resolved-position history, so the conviction is notable but not yet validated by performance.
$11,043 on Yes
New wallet scaling into Yes
A new, untracked wallet is repeatedly adding a sizable Yes position during a sharp volume and price surge, though it lacks a proven track record.
- This wallet has committed about $15,600 to Yes, including two fresh $2,359 purchases at 84¢.
- The market rose 33% over the past week while trading volume spiked to 15.4 times its historical average.
- There is no resolved-position history, so the conviction is notable but not yet validated by performance.
$13,811 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $19,858,985
- 0x0c68...9e76 — No, $594,923 (100% win rate)
- 0xa9fe...f135 — No, $443,859 (67% win rate)
- 0xe217...846d — No, $358,419
- 0x3750...cbdd — No, $358,067
- 0xa694...ab37 — No, $258,696 (50% win rate)
- 0x5048...e033 — No, $221,042
- 0xa50f...03e0 — No, $219,279
- 0xe5c7...9e24 — No, $211,718
- 0xd45c...36c4 — No, $143,507
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