Part of: Fed Decision in September?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $516,783.
Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, Politics, Fed, Economy, CPI Release
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A proven, highly profitable serial trader is adding $23,700 to an existing Yes position despite the market already pricing the outcome at 79%.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $142,587 lifetime, with an average winning entry price of 71%.
- They are adding $23,700 to an existing Yes position at 79%, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The wallet has traded across 51 markets and 30 events, suggesting a broad and established forecasting process.
$13,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Sharp bettor adds to Fed hike position
A proven bettor with a 77% win rate and positive edge is adding nearly $8,000 to an existing Yes position in a strongly rising Fed market.
- This bettor has won 239 of 310 resolved trades, with a 77% win rate and $28,591 lifetime profit.
- They added $7,788 to an existing Yes position at 88¢, showing continued conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Yes has risen 35% over the past week, while the market remains highly liquid with over $4.4 million traded in 24 hours.
$3,525 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp bettor scales into Yes
A bettor with a 90% recent win rate added $49,046 to an existing Yes position amid a major volume surge and strong market momentum.
- This bettor has won 90% of 10 resolved trades, with a 29-point edge over average entry odds.
- They added $49,046 to an existing Yes position worth $112,552, signaling increased conviction at 88¢.
- The market is up 35% over the past week while trading volume is running 22.8 times its historical average.
$49,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp bettor adds to Fed hike position
A proven bettor with a 77% win rate and positive edge is adding nearly $8,000 to an existing Yes position in a strongly rising Fed market.
- This bettor has won 239 of 310 resolved trades, with a 77% win rate and $28,591 lifetime profit.
- They added $7,788 to an existing Yes position at 88¢, showing continued conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Yes has risen 35% over the past week, while the market remains highly liquid with over $4.4 million traded in 24 hours.
$7,788 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A recently active wallet is repeatedly scaling into Yes, with a small but perfect early track record, though the market is already priced at 88%.
- This wallet has flagged roughly $19,000 across seven repeat bets and is adding to an existing Yes position.
- It has won all 3 resolved bets and is up $126, but the track record remains too small to establish a durable edge.
- Yes is already priced at 88% after rising 35% in a week, so the remaining upside is limited and entry discipline matters.
$1,628 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable trader scales into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 78% win rate is adding another $11.2K to an existing Yes position despite the market already trading at 88%.
- This bettor has won 78% of 135 resolved trades and is up $24,868 lifetime.
- They added $11,249 to an existing Yes position, showing continued conviction at an 88¢ price.
- The market has risen 34% over the past week, reinforcing the direction of the trade.
$11,249 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
93% winner adds to Yes
A proven 93% winner with a substantial edge is adding $10,005 to an existing Yes position in a highly liquid Fed market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $33,188 lifetime.
- The wallet has beaten implied odds by 21 percentage points across 54 resolved bets.
- It is adding $10,005 to an existing Yes position, reinforcing conviction that the Fed will raise rates 25 bps.
$10,005 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A new, untracked wallet is repeatedly adding a sizable Yes position during a sharp volume and price surge, though it lacks a proven track record.
- This wallet has committed about $15,600 to Yes, including two fresh $2,359 purchases at 84¢.
- The market rose 33% over the past week while trading volume spiked to 15.4 times its historical average.
- There is no resolved-position history, so the conviction is notable but not yet validated by performance.
$7,896 on Yes
New wallet scaling into Yes
A new, untracked wallet is repeatedly adding a sizable Yes position during a sharp volume and price surge, though it lacks a proven track record.
- This wallet has committed about $15,600 to Yes, including two fresh $2,359 purchases at 84¢.
- The market rose 33% over the past week while trading volume spiked to 15.4 times its historical average.
- There is no resolved-position history, so the conviction is notable but not yet validated by performance.
$11,043 on Yes
New wallet scaling into Yes
A new, untracked wallet is repeatedly adding a sizable Yes position during a sharp volume and price surge, though it lacks a proven track record.
- This wallet has committed about $15,600 to Yes, including two fresh $2,359 purchases at 84¢.
- The market rose 33% over the past week while trading volume spiked to 15.4 times its historical average.
- There is no resolved-position history, so the conviction is notable but not yet validated by performance.
$13,811 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 28819571, $19,858,985
- 0x0c68...9e76 — Outcome 28819571, $594,923 (100% win rate)
- 0xa9fe...f135 — Outcome 28819571, $443,859 (67% win rate)
- 0xe217...846d — Outcome 28819571, $358,419
- 0x3750...cbdd — Outcome 28819571, $358,067
- 0xa694...ab37 — Outcome 28819571, $258,696 (50% win rate)
- 0x5048...e033 — Outcome 28819571, $221,042
- 0xa50f...03e0 — Outcome 28819571, $219,279
- 0xe5c7...9e24 — Outcome 28819571, $211,718
- 0xd45c...36c4 — Outcome 28819571, $143,507
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