Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2026?

This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the federal funds target range by exactly 25 basis points after its September 2026 meeting.

When does the September 2026 Fed rate prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026, following the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting.

How is the Fed rate change measured in this market?

The outcome is based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared with its level immediately before the September 2026 meeting.

Where can I check the Polymarket odds for a September 2026 Fed hike?

You can view the latest prediction market odds, trading activity, and smart money signals for this Fed rate market on PolySpotter.

Part of: Fed Decision in September?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

This prediction market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will increase the upper bound of its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves based on the change from the rate level before the meeting, with live market odds and smart money activity available on PolySpotter.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $107,443.

Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, Politics, Fed, Economy

Notable Trades

Six-wallet No cluster with sharp trader

A proven high-volume serial trader bought No alongside five other wallets during a 69.7x volume spike, creating a strong coordinated signal despite the market already moving toward No.

Six wallets bought No for a combined $66,873, signaling coordinated conviction.
This trader has resolved 2,291 positions with a 92% win rate and $370,696 in lifetime profit.
The market saw a 69.7x historical volume spike, while No rose from the 58¢ entry to about 68¢.

$5,499 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly experienced trader with 325 resolved positions and $314K profit is adding substantially to an existing Yes position amid a 17x event-volume spike, though the historical odds edge is limited.

This bettor has won 83% of 325 resolved trades and is up about $314,000 lifetime.
They added $6,900 to an existing Yes position now priced at 46¢, showing continued conviction after the market fell 9% in a day.
Trading activity is 17 times the historical average, while the wallet is positioning across two markets tied to the same event.

$1,898 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly experienced trader with 325 resolved positions and $314K profit is adding substantially to an existing Yes position amid a 17x event-volume spike, though the historical odds edge is limited.

This bettor has won 83% of 325 resolved trades and is up about $314,000 lifetime.
They added $6,900 to an existing Yes position now priced at 46¢, showing continued conviction after the market fell 9% in a day.
Trading activity is 17 times the historical average, while the wallet is positioning across two markets tied to the same event.

$4,723 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

New whale scaling into Yes

A repeat new wallet is scaling into a large Yes position amid a 31.8x volume spike, though it lacks a resolved track record.

A 12-day-old wallet has invested roughly $96,000 in Yes, including another $12,945 at 46¢.
The market saw a 31.8x historical volume spike while this wallet repeatedly added to its position.
There is no resolved track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the evidence of skill.

$4,388 on Yes

New whale scaling into Yes

A seven-day-old wallet is repeatedly scaling into Yes with over $36,000 invested while unusual activity has surged, though it lacks a proven track record.

A wallet only seven days old has repeatedly bought Yes, with more than $36,000 now invested in the position.
The latest $11,429 purchase helped drive a 37x spike versus the market’s historical trading activity.
The entry at 46¢ implies the bettor sees roughly a 2.2x payout opportunity if rates rise 25 basis points.

$11,429 on Yes

New whale scaling into Yes

A repeat new wallet is scaling into a large Yes position amid a 31.8x volume spike, though it lacks a resolved track record.

A 12-day-old wallet has invested roughly $96,000 in Yes, including another $12,945 at 46¢.
The market saw a 31.8x historical volume spike while this wallet repeatedly added to its position.
There is no resolved track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the evidence of skill.

$12,945 on Yes

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly experienced trader with 325 resolved positions and $314K profit is adding substantially to an existing Yes position amid a 17x event-volume spike, though the historical odds edge is limited.

This bettor has won 83% of 325 resolved trades and is up about $314,000 lifetime.
They added $6,900 to an existing Yes position now priced at 46¢, showing continued conviction after the market fell 9% in a day.
Trading activity is 17 times the historical average, while the wallet is positioning across two markets tied to the same event.

$4,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly experienced trader with 325 resolved positions and $314K profit is adding substantially to an existing Yes position amid a 17x event-volume spike, though the historical odds edge is limited.

This bettor has won 83% of 325 resolved trades and is up about $314,000 lifetime.
They added $6,900 to an existing Yes position now priced at 46¢, showing continued conviction after the market fell 9% in a day.
Trading activity is 17 times the historical average, while the wallet is positioning across two markets tied to the same event.

$6,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Proven macro bettor buys No

A highly profitable bettor with 1,580 resolved trades bought No amid a 48.8x volume spike and related-event positioning.

This bettor wins 85% of 1,580 resolved trades and has earned $2.77M in reported P&L.
The $1,208 No purchase came during a 48.8x historical volume spike, with No now priced at 40%.
The wallet also placed $11,660 across two related markets, indicating a broader macro thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$1,208 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Serial high-volume Yes bettor

A highly active bettor with an 86% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position, though the two-wallet cluster provides only modest additional confirmation.

This bettor has won 86% of 1,359 resolved trades and is adding to an existing Yes position.
The wallet has traded across 249 markets and $1.27M in serial cross-market activity, suggesting substantial market experience.
A second wallet sharing the same funder is also flagged, but the cluster contains only two wallets and the market is highly liquid.

$1,983 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%