What does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market measure?

It measures whether IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls, listed as Arrivals of Ships, at 60 or higher at any point between market creation and April 30, 2026.

When does the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?

The market resolves by April 30, 2026, and it can resolve earlier if IMF PortWatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day moving average has reached the threshold.

What counts as 'traffic returns to normal' in this market?

For this market, traffic is considered back to normal if the 7-day moving average of arrivals reaches at least 60. The source includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships reported by IMF PortWatch.

What data source decides the outcome?

The outcome is determined by IMF PortWatch data only. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are excluded from the calculation, so the published Arrivals of Ships metric is what matters for resolution.

Why are traders watching this Polymarket closely?

The market sits at the intersection of shipping, oil, Iran-related tensions, and broader macro geopolitics. Prediction market odds can move quickly as traders react to changes in regional security, commercial vessel traffic, and updated IMF PortWatch readings.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

This prediction market asks whether shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by April 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch reports a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at or above 60 on any date before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders following Polymarket odds are watching regional geopolitics, oil flows, and commercial shipping data closely.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $155,735.

Categories: Economy, ships, Iran, China, Geopolitics, Oil, U.S. x Iran, transit, Hormuz, Strait of Hormuz, Macro Geopolitics

Notable Trades

81% win-rate macro bettor

An 81% win-rate serial cross-market trader put $51k into No on a real-world shipping market, a sizable followable bet even though the signal is only from their broader track record.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades across 248 bets and has traded 113 related markets
They just put $51k on No at 76¢, a meaningful position in a real-world event market
The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like deliberate conviction than a random thin-market punt

$51,316 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable macro event bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate and $200k profit is taking a fresh No position here after previously closing a sizable Yes stake, suggesting a deliberate thesis change worth tracking.

This bettor has won 809 of 1,127 resolved markets and is up about $200k overall
They trade across many related event markets at scale: 297 markets across 125 events and $1.13M deployed
This is a fresh No buy at 70¢ after closing a much larger earlier Yes position, showing an active view change rather than routine profit-taking

$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

97% win-rate macro bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate is taking the No side in a major geopolitics market at 70¢, making this a sharp-trader signal despite only a single trade.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades, with 185 wins and $65.6k profit across 190 markets
They have traded 199 markets across 149 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
Bought No at 70¢ in a high-volume geopolitics market, implying they see the April normalization odds as lower than the market did

$3,556 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

97% winner leads cluster

Three wallets piled into No together, led by a serial cross-market trader with a 97% win rate, making this coordinated flow worth watching despite the other wallets' mixed records.

A bettor who wins 97% of resolved markets joined this same-side cluster after trading 198 markets across 148 events
Three wallets bought No within minutes of each other for $6.5k total, showing coordinated conviction rather than a lone bet
They entered around 69-70¢ while No now sits near 70¢, backing the side that has already gained 15 points in the last day

$6,456 on No

Repeat new whale

A repeat new wallet has already put nearly $47k into flagged trades and just made another $6.3k position in a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting real conviction despite limited history.

This new wallet has been flagged 3 times already with $46.8k in notable bets and is up $3.5k so far
The trade was a sell of No at 66¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 34¢ in this market
The market is active and repricing fast, with Yes up 19 points in a day, so this bettor is leaning into strong momentum

$6,256 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%

New whale pressing NO

A 5-day-old wallet has repeatedly put meaningful size into this geopolitics market, suggesting fresh conviction behind a No position despite a sharp recent rally in Yes.

This wallet is less than 5 days old and has already been flagged 4 times for large bets totaling $11.7k
It just bought No at 53¢ in a high-volume geopolitical market after Yes jumped 30.5 points in a day
The trade size is meaningful but not market-moving, which fits a bettor building a deliberate position rather than random flow

$2,836 on No

3-wallet sharp cluster

Three wallets piled into Yes within minutes on a fast-moving real-world shipping market, including two bettors with strong hit rates and one very active wallet up over $1.0M lifetime.

Three wallets all bought Yes within 12 minutes for $5.8k total, showing coordinated conviction on the same outcome.
Two wallets have strong records, including one bettor winning 75% of 24 resolved trades and another at 10 for 10.
One of the wallets is up more than $1.0M lifetime, and they entered at 45-51¢ while the market has already moved to 50¢ after a 34-point 1-day jump.

$5,826 on Yes

6-wallet No cluster

A repeat new wallet joined a 6-wallet one-sided push into No during a major volume and price surge, and this trade is a fresh directional bet rather than simple profit-taking.

Six wallets all piled into No with about $14.2k total, pointing to coordinated conviction.
This 18-day-old wallet has already triggered six large-bet alerts and put nearly $19.2k into flagged trades.
The trader sold Yes at 61¢, which translates to buying No around 39¢ while the market has been moving fast.

$3,486 on No | Wallet win rate: 0%

3-wallet Yes cluster

Three wallets aligned on Yes into a fast-rising geopolitical market, including one high-volume bettor up over $1.0M lifetime, making this coordinated directional flow worth watching despite only a mid-level signal score.

Three wallets all bought Yes for $6.5k in minutes while the market has surged 33.5 points in a day.
One of the buyers is up over $1.0M lifetime across 844 resolved bets, adding credibility to the move.
They entered at 42-47¢ while the market now sits around 48¢, suggesting they still saw upside after the breakout.

$6,454 on Yes

76% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a strong 76% win rate is backing No at 84¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a follow-worthy sharp-bettor signal despite modest size.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades across 298 markets and has nearly $89k in profit
They trade heavily across related events, with $3.28M deployed over 42 events and 115 markets
Bought No at 84¢, showing confidence that Hormuz traffic stays below the threshold through April

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%