Part of: Who will Trump speak to in June?
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,631.
Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No before a major volume spike and the position has already moved sharply in their favor.
- This bettor has won 72% of 448 resolved markets and is up $244k lifetime.
- They have traded across 190 related markets with $8.8M in total volume, suggesting a repeatable event-driven approach.
- They bought No at 49¢ before the market moved to 61¢, alongside a 228x volume spike.
$2,007 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable whale flips Yes
A highly profitable whale flipped into a $19.2k Yes position amid a 564x volume spike and a sharp move higher.
- This wallet is up $1.27M lifetime and just bought $19.2k of Yes.
- The market saw a 564x volume spike and Yes jumped about 18 percentage points during the buying.
- The bettor had previously closed a No position, so this looks like a fresh flip toward Yes rather than profit-taking.
$19,209 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
Proven winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a profitable 78% winner bought No despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $20.8K lifetime.
- They bought $1.1K of No at 70¢ as the market has moved sharply toward No.
- Yes is down 54 points over the week, and this trade follows that momentum.
$2,557 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Proven winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a profitable 78% winner bought No despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $20.8K lifetime.
- They bought $1.1K of No at 70¢ as the market has moved sharply toward No.
- Yes is down 54 points over the week, and this trade follows that momentum.
$1,086 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable contrarian buyer
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian Yes position after a major price collapse, with linked-wallet activity adding some corroboration.
- This bettor is up about $1.18M lifetime across 1,369 resolved bets.
- They bought Yes at 25¢ after the market had fallen sharply from its prior 55–71¢ range.
- A linked-wallet cluster has put about $46.6K into related activity, adding conviction beyond one wallet.
$1,161 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
90% winner flips Yes
Sharp-wallet override: a highly profitable 90% winner bought Yes in a thin political market despite only a modest low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $37k lifetime across 1,725 markets.
- The $2.6k Yes buy was larger than the market’s reported 24h volume, showing conviction in a thin book.
- They previously held a small No position but have closed it and moved to Yes.
$2,611 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0x5c53...8c30 — Outcome 77880220, $10,000
- 0x5533...51ba — Outcome 77880220, $1,332
- 0x9010...d06f — Outcome 77880220, $1,300
- 0x3ecc...1d30 — Outcome 77880220, $1,043
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 77880220, $1,000 (49% win rate)
- 0xb557...ef84 — Outcome 77880220, $900
- 0x9cdd...3e97 — Outcome 77880220, $897 (90% win rate)
- 0x07d8...294a — Outcome 77880220, $678 (75% win rate)
- 0x8b72...6dbe — Outcome 77880220, $552 (48% win rate)
- 0xb986...4b60 — Outcome 77880220, $549
Related Theses
Fed holds rates steady
Covers 2 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
Iran deal likely soon
Covers 10 related markets
US-Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Trump lifts Hormuz blockade
Covers 5 related markets
Iran talks happen after April
Covers 12 related markets
