Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a general, non-weather-related closure of its airspace or the Tehran FIR by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes only if the closure broadly applies to commercial flights; recent smart money activity has favored No, with $1,700 tracked across one signal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,410.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
Serial trader scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader is adding $1,672 to an existing No position in a relatively quiet Iran airspace market, though the wallet's modest 58% win rate limits confidence.
- This trader is adding to an existing No position after placing $37,524 across seven related markets.
- The $1,672 purchase represented roughly 10 times the reported 24-hour market volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a relatively quiet market.
- The wallet has a 58% win rate across 2,112 resolved trades, so the directional signal is notable but not backed by an exceptional record.
$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Serial trader scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader is adding $1,672 to an existing No position in a relatively quiet Iran airspace market, though the wallet's modest 58% win rate limits confidence.
- This trader is adding to an existing No position after placing $37,524 across seven related markets.
- The $1,672 purchase represented roughly 10 times the reported 24-hour market volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a relatively quiet market.
- The wallet has a 58% win rate across 2,112 resolved trades, so the directional signal is notable but not backed by an exceptional record.
$1,672 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
92% winner adds to No
A highly successful serial cross-market trader is adding $3,038 to an existing No position in a thin market, though the trade is less compelling because it is not a fresh position.
- This bettor has won 92% of 75 resolved trades and is up $41,203 lifetime.
- They are adding $3,038 to No in a market where that trade represents essentially all recent volume.
- The position is an addition rather than a new entry, so it shows conviction but offers less fresh information.
$3,038 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $29,427 (69% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — No, $22,501 (67% win rate)
- 0x993c...6787 — Yes, $12,000 (40% win rate)
- 0x1680...490d — No, $10,725 (73% win rate)
- 0xb37a...f1b1 — No, $10,104 (53% win rate)
- 0x79d9...baec — No, $7,000 (92% win rate)
- 0xd7ee...0e97 — Yes, $4,919 (65% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $3,444 (70% win rate)
- 0xb51b...b4d9 — No, $3,233 (61% win rate)
- 0xf961...52bd — Yes, $2,941
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