What is the Trump Project Freedom prediction market about?

It tracks whether Donald Trump, the United States government, or the U.S. military will announce that Project Freedom is being restarted by May 31, 2026.

What would make this market resolve Yes?

A qualifying Yes outcome requires an announcement explicitly restarting “Project Freedom” or announcing a substantially equivalent U.S.-led military escort initiative for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

When does the Project Freedom market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying announcement is made by the May 31, 2026 deadline.

What are smart money traders signaling on this market?

PolySpotter has tracked $5,488 in smart money activity across 3 signals, with recent alerts highlighting No-side momentum from sharp and high-win-rate wallets.

Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter for this market?

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping route for global energy markets, so any U.S.-led escort mission there could be a major geopolitical and military development.

Part of: Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military will announce a restart of Project Freedom, a U.S.-led escort initiative for commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, by May 31, 2026. Recent PolySpotter smart money alerts show No-side momentum, including sharp-wallet clustering and high-win-rate traders backing No. The market resolves Yes only if Project Freedom—or a substantially equivalent Strait of Hormuz escort operation—is announced by the deadline.

Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, and the United States military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

21 smart money signals detected, totaling $82,832.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Unbeaten new wallet buys YES

New profitable wallet with an 8-0 resolved record is effectively buying Yes into a major volume spike and recent upward price move.

This newer bettor is 8-for-8 on resolved markets and already up $478.
They are effectively buying Yes at 12¢, taking the contrarian side against a 90¢ No market.
Market volume is running 243x above normal, and Yes is up 8 points in the last day.

$1,676 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

86% winner re-enters No

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No after a major volume spike.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $56K lifetime across over $12.7M invested.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 232 markets with a strong historical hit rate.
They bought No at 87¢ and the market has already moved to about 90¢, supporting the direction.

$1,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved sample is fading the recent move by buying No as market volume spikes.

This bettor has 918 resolved trades, wins 68% of them, and is up about $146,579 lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, suggesting this is part of a repeatable strategy rather than a one-off bet.
Market volume is 34.8x above normal, and they bought No at 88¢ despite recent movement toward Yes.

$2,571 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long record is buying No against a recent Yes rally on a geopolitical market.

This bettor has a long record: 74% wins across 1,195 resolved bets and +$165.7k lifetime profit.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 203 markets and 100 events with $658.7k tracked in this pattern.
The $2.5k No buy fades a sharp Yes move today, suggesting they see the recent rally as overdone.

$2,483 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a fresh No position during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market.

This bettor is up about $266K lifetime across 1,059 resolved bets.
They are a serial event trader, with $1.49M bet across 55 events and 86 markets.
Market activity is unusually hot, with volume running 47x above its historical average.

$3,360 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

81% winner buying NO

Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No into a major volume spike and strong No-side price move.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $2.4M lifetime.
They are a serious cross-market trader, with $5.2M deployed across 211 markets.
No has moved sharply with a 71x volume spike, and this wallet entered at 70¢ before it rose to 74¢.

$3,392 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

82% sharp No buyer

Proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate is buying No amid a major volume spike and strong cross-market trading history.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $510K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 131 markets with nearly $2.0M in tracked activity.
Market activity spiked 71x versus normal volume, and this wallet bought $4K of No at 80¢.

$4,044 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial cross-market sharp

A profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate bought No amid a major volume spike and sharp price move.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $226k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 84 events with $7.25M total traded.
They bought No at 80¢, while the market is now around 74¢, offering a cheaper entry than their fill.

$3,984 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial trader fading move

Experienced profitable cross-market trader is buying No during a major volume-and-price move, though sizing is modest and the market is liquid.

This bettor has traded across 107 markets, with $147k lifetime profit on $13.8M invested.
The market just saw a 71x volume spike and a roughly 23-point price move, suggesting fresh momentum around the event.
They bought No at 77¢, implying they are fading the recent Yes rally despite heavy activity.

$1,267 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

78% winner leads No surge

High-conviction No flow led by a proven 78% winner, with 9-wallet one-sided buying, an 89x volume spike, and a large move in the same direction.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $382K lifetime.
Nine wallets bought No for $14.4K as market volume spiked 89x above normal.
They entered No at 34¢ before it jumped to 67¢, so the signal is strong but already moved sharply.

$1,447 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%