Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?
35 signals across 2 markets · $180,153 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military will announce a restart of Project Freedom by May 31. Traders are weighing geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S.-Iran tensions, and whether any new escort mission would qualify as a restart or equivalent initiative. PolySpotter has flagged a recent smart money signal: a proven sharp bought Yes.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp nine-wallet Yes surge
High-conviction Yes cluster with a 522x volume spike, an 82-point daily price move, and multiple highly profitable bettors joining the same side.
$54,834Score: 23.9 - Sharp No cluster surge
Seven wallets, including multiple profitable high-win-rate traders, bought $11.8k of No during a 69x volume spike and major No price move.
$11,798Score: 22.2 - Sharp wallets fading spike
Three wallets, including a 75% winner up $234k and serial cross-market traders, are fading a massive Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No around 16¢.
$6,032Score: 17.7 - 78% winner leads No surge
High-conviction No flow led by a proven 78% winner, with 9-wallet one-sided buying, an 89x volume spike, and a large move in the same direction.
$1,447Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 16.1 - 86% winner joining No cluster
Highly proven cross-market bettor bought No alongside a 9-wallet one-sided move, with major volume and price momentum supporting the same direction.
$1,137Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 15.1 - Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $511k profit bought Yes after a major price surge.
$2,095Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 14.9 - 9-wallet No momentum
High composite alert driven by one-sided No flow from 9 wallets, a major volume spike, and a large Yes price drop, though this specific wallet appears to be exiting a prior Yes position rather than opening a clean new No bet.
$1,049Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 14.1 - Serial winner buying YES
A proven 75% win-rate serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Yes amid a large volume spike and same-direction wallet flow.
$1,223Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 13.8 - Sharp cluster buying YES
Three profitable cross-market bettors bought $25k of Yes into a major volume spike and price breakout, including one wallet with an 89% resolved-bet win rate.
$25,389Score: 13.6 - Sharp cross-market geopolitics bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate bought Yes before a major volume spike and price jump on a geopolitics market.
$5,607Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 11.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$12,538 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xf20ab3…642f$8,080 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 71% wins
- 0xc6dd72…4b9f$6,337 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$6,287 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 67% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$6,139 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$5,621 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 61% wins
- 0x25257a…b919$5,195 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 54% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$4,066 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 68% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$3,392 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$2,571 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Trump restarts Project Freedom by May 31?
The live odds are set by Polymarket traders buying and selling the Yes and No outcomes. This event page tracks the market as expectations shift around U.S. policy, Iran tensions, and Strait of Hormuz security.
What does this Polymarket event resolve on?
It resolves to Yes if Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military announces by the deadline that Project Freedom will be restarted, or announces a substantially equivalent U.S.-led ship escort initiative through the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $4,000 in smart money activity across this event, including one recent signal where a proven sharp bought Yes. That does not guarantee the outcome, but it suggests at least one experienced trader saw value on the Yes side.
Why does this market matter?
Project Freedom relates to military escorts for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important oil and trade chokepoint. Any restart could signal a major shift in U.S. posture toward Iran and regional maritime security.
When will the Trump Project Freedom market resolve?
The event is scheduled around the May 31 deadline, with resolution based on whether a qualifying announcement is made by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.