Part of: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,024.

Categories: houthi, traffic, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, shipping, Politics, cape of good hope, Regional Spillover, red sea, Houthis, Yemen

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market No bettor

A highly experienced bettor is adding $21,000 to an existing No position while expressing the same thesis across four related markets, though its win rate only modestly exceeds its typical entry odds.

This bettor has won 90% of 254 resolved trades and is up $773,616 lifetime.
The wallet is scaling an existing No position and has committed $65,328 across four related markets, with activity observed in three prior runs.
The No price has fallen to 88¢, so the trade implies the bettor sees the strait remaining effectively open through the deadline.

$21,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

96% winner scaling into No

A highly accurate bettor with a 96% win rate is adding another $9,024 to an existing No position at 90¢, supported by correlated event positioning.

This bettor has won 96% of 28 resolved trades, including positions across this event.
They added $9,024 to an existing No position at 90¢, bringing total exposure above $19,000.
The 90¢ entry implies confidence that the strait will not meet the closure threshold by the deadline.

$9,024 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $145,682 (71% win rate)
0x17e3...9ba5 — No, $106,638 (100% win rate)
0x7eaa...fd24 — No, $40,000 (91% win rate)
0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $32,929 (52% win rate)
0x3eae...e2ed — No, $29,582 (97% win rate)
0xc682...17bb — No, $26,492 (80% win rate)
0x5be7...1b1d — No, $16,315 (98% win rate)
0x453a...81d2 — Yes, $16,155 (44% win rate)
0xf92a...a517 — No, $16,122 (93% win rate)
0x01c0...b979 — Yes, $14,524

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?$30,024 tracked2 signalshouthitrafficOilGeopoliticsIranStrait of HormuzshippingPoliticscape of good hopeRegional Spilloverred seaHouthisYemen

Yes

0¢

100¢

Yes

0¢

100¢

Price History — “No”

102¢

99¢

97¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction