What does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market measure?

It measures whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, according to IMF Portwatch’s “Arrivals of Ships” data.

When will the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?

The market has a final resolution date of September 30, 2026, but it may resolve earlier once IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data.

What makes this market resolve Yes?

It resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of 60 or more “Arrivals of Ships” for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026.

Where can I check the current Polymarket odds and smart-money activity?

Check the live market page for current Yes and No prices, trading activity, and PolySpotter smart-money signals.

Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Q: What counts as a transit call in this market?

Eligible transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are excluded.

This prediction market asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to at least 60 average daily transit calls by September 30, 2026. It resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch records a 7-day moving average of 60 or more “Arrivals of Ships” on any date before the deadline; otherwise, it resolves No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,360.

Categories: Politics, Oil, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor backs unlikely Yes

A highly experienced bettor with a 79% win rate and $475,346 profit is taking the contrarian Yes side at 14% by selling No.

This bettor has won 79% of 1,033 resolved trades and earned $475,346 in profit.
Selling No at 86¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 14¢, despite Yes currently implying only a 14% chance.
The wallet trades across 825 markets, providing unusually large and established evidence of decision-making skill.

$1,162 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Elite serial trader pivots to No

A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.

This bettor has won 82% of 1,436 resolved positions and earned $757,328 in reported profit.
The wallet is closing a $7,666 Yes position and selling Yes at 20¢, equivalent to buying No around 80¢.
The trader has active positions across 53 markets and 45 events, suggesting this is part of a broad, experienced thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$2,001 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite serial trader pivots to No

A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.

This bettor has won 82% of 1,436 resolved positions and earned $757,328 in reported profit.
The wallet is closing a $7,666 Yes position and selling Yes at 20¢, equivalent to buying No around 80¢.
The trader has active positions across 53 markets and 45 events, suggesting this is part of a broad, experienced thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$4,221 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

92% winner scales into No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $8,000 to an existing No position.

This bettor has won 92% of 77 resolved trades and is up $31,683 overall.
They added $8,000 to an existing No position, bringing their investment on this market above $19,000.
The No position was bought around 71¢ while No currently trades near 70¢, implying substantial confidence that traffic will not normalize by the deadline.

$8,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Three-wallet cluster scaling into Yes

Three wallets added nearly $12,000 to Yes during a 55x volume spike, reinforcing an already-established coordinated position despite modest individual track records.

Three wallets bought nearly $12,000 of Yes within minutes, with the largest entry at 30¢.
Trading volume was 55 times its historical average, while Yes has risen 13% over the past week.
All three wallets already held Yes, so this signals increased conviction rather than fresh positioning; none has a standout win rate.

$11,954 on Yes

94% win-rate trader adds to No

A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,000 to an existing No position.

This bettor wins 94% of 288 resolved trades and is up over $1.06 million.
They are scaling into an existing No position with a fresh $20,000 purchase at 82¢.
The trader has participated across 445 markets and 349 events, suggesting a broad, repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.

$15,323 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Elite serial trader pivots to No

A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.

This bettor has won 82% of 1,436 resolved positions and earned $757,328 in reported profit.
The wallet is closing a $7,666 Yes position and selling Yes at 20¢, equivalent to buying No around 80¢.
The trader has active positions across 53 markets and 45 events, suggesting this is part of a broad, experienced thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$1,685 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite serial trader pivots to No

A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.

This bettor has won 82% of 1,436 resolved positions and earned $757,328 in reported profit.
The wallet is closing a $7,666 Yes position and selling Yes at 20¢, equivalent to buying No around 80¢.
The trader has active positions across 53 markets and 45 events, suggesting this is part of a broad, experienced thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$3,610 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

94% win-rate trader adds to No

A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,000 to an existing No position.

This bettor wins 94% of 288 resolved trades and is up over $1.06 million.
They are scaling into an existing No position with a fresh $20,000 purchase at 82¢.
The trader has participated across 445 markets and 349 events, suggesting a broad, repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.

$20,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Elite serial trader pivots to No

A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity is exiting Yes, creating a meaningful bearish signal on the market.

This bettor has won 82% of 1,436 resolved positions and earned $757,328 in reported profit.
The wallet is closing a $7,666 Yes position and selling Yes at 20¢, equivalent to buying No around 80¢.
The trader has active positions across 53 markets and 45 events, suggesting this is part of a broad, experienced thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$1,895 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%