Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,966.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Active new wallet scaling in
A 16-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size across this conflict event, and this fresh $1.1k buy on Yes adds to an unusually active new-wallet pattern worth tracking despite limited resolved history.
- This 16-day-old wallet has already triggered 16 large-bet alerts and put $65k+ into flagged trades
- It is betting across 2 related conflict markets with more than $10k total, suggesting a broader event view
- Bought Yes at 18¢ while the market sits near 16¢, showing continued conviction rather than profit-taking
$1,078 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
92% win-rate cross-market bettor
A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate sold No here, which converts to a Yes buy at 18¢ and is worth surfacing despite only a moderate composite score because the track record is unusually strong.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 1,101 markets and has traded 71 events.
- Selling No at 82¢ is the same as buying Yes at 18¢, a low-price entry on a major geopolitics market.
- The market is liquid enough to take seriously, and this wallet has a long history of making event-linked bets across related markets.
$5,296 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
12-wallet funded cluster
A linked 12-wallet cluster tied to an experienced 69% win-rate trader is buying Yes at 17¢ in a major geopolitical market, suggesting coordinated conviction despite this wallet having previously closed an earlier position.
- 12 linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign one actor is pressing this view across accounts.
- This wallet has a 69% win rate over 332 resolved bets and has traded 127 related markets across 68 events.
- Bought Yes at 17¢ in a liquid geopolitical market, pricing this as a long-shot with roughly 5-to-1 upside if right.
$2,476 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
77% event-thesis bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 77% win rate is adding to a broad event-level thesis by buying No at 87¢ in this Iran conflict market.
- This bettor has won 77% of 969 resolved trades and has put nearly $787k across 123 events.
- They have traded 8 markets in this same event for $143k total, showing a coordinated event-level view rather than a one-off bet.
- Bought No at 87¢ while No is still 88¢, backing the market favorite with a trader who consistently wins at high odds.
$4,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
New wallet pressing NO
A 17-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across this event and just put nearly $10k into No, suggesting sustained high-conviction positioning despite limited resolved history.
- This 17-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts and put $63k+ into flagged trades
- It just added nearly $10k on No at 86¢, a high-conviction bet in a market with $121k of 24-hour volume
- The wallet is also betting across 2 related conflict markets, pointing to a broader event-driven thesis
$9,866 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $119,556 (66% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $105,941 (71% win rate)
- 0x3541...462e — Yes, $88,518 (47% win rate)
- 0xfd22...ad91 — No, $46,089 (44% win rate)
- 0x7158...5439 — No, $40,685 (100% win rate)
- 0x8cce...5c11 — No, $35,354 (97% win rate)
- 0x40f1...15f9 — No, $29,916 (21% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $27,445 (69% win rate)
- 0x57ed...fdf0 — No, $24,200 (100% win rate)
- 0x8c8a...e62a — No, $21,579 (57% win rate)
