Part of: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $150,437.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
86% win-rate event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is building a multi-market thesis on the Iran/Israel-US conflict event, making this worth surfacing despite the small single-ticket size.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up nearly $392k lifetime
- They have put $45.6k across 4 related markets in the same event, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 78¢ in a liquid news-driven market, showing conviction even after a strong weekly move
$1,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
86% win-rate event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is expressing a consistent cross-market thesis on this conflict event, and this trade translates to buying No around 23¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $419k overall
- They have put $173k across 4 related conflict markets, showing a coordinated event-level view
- This sale of Yes at 77¢ is equivalent to buying No at 23¢, a cheap entry if their thesis is right
$3,409 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
86% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 86% win-rate trader with a long history of cross-market event positioning is fading the market's optimism here, which is notable despite the modest size and liquid market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $419k across $6.35M invested
- They have bet 57 markets across 31 events, including 4 markets tied to this same conflict theme
- They sold Yes at 77¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 23¢ while the market now implies only a 20% chance
$3,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Cross-market sharp buying NO
A cross-market trader with a strong same-event pattern and early perfect record sold overpriced Yes shares at 80¢, which translates into a copyable BUY No around 20¢.
- This wallet has bet across 5 related conflict markets for over $70k and is flagged across prior runs with a 92% hit rate signal.
- They sold Yes at 80¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 20¢; with No now around 28¢, the thesis has already moved their way.
- The trade came in a liquid, high-attention market, so the signal is more about trader skill across the event than a random bet in a thin market.
$1,144 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
92% win-rate thesis trader
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is building a broad thesis across five related conflict markets, and this trade is a fresh re-entry into Yes despite the market already trading rich.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $175.8k lifetime
- They have put $70.6k-$112.0k across 5 related markets on the same conflict thesis
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ in a liquid market, showing continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Cross-market sharps buying No
Three wallets sold Yes into an 88% market, which translates to buying No around 13-14¢, and the cluster includes one proven high-volume 74% winner with a strong serial cross-market pattern across this event.
- Three wallets lined up on the same side for $17.7k total, effectively buying No around 13-14¢.
- One bettor wins 74% of 317 resolved markets and is up $225.9k, with a long history trading 108 related markets across 70 events.
- They are fading a market that has already jumped 33 points in a week, suggesting they think the 88¢ Yes price is too rich.
$17,688 on No
74% win-rate event specialist
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is reopening or refreshing a high-confidence Yes position in a major geopolitics event despite already-rich 90¢ pricing.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved markets and is up $225k lifetime
- They have traded 107 markets across 69 related events, which points to a repeatable edge in event-driven markets
- They bought Yes at 90¢ on a liquid market that has already surged 35 points in a week, showing conviction even after the move
$8,050 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
92% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is making a fresh cross-market event bet, but this specific trade is weaker because it is a small add-back into a liquid market at an already expensive 86¢.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up about $172k lifetime
- They have put $69k across 5 related conflict markets, showing a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
- This trade bought Yes at 86¢, which is pricey, but it aligns with a bettor who has been right often on similar markets
$1,008 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Proven event trader re-entering
Profitable high-volume event trader with a 74% win rate is re-entering this conflict market at 85¢ as volume surges across related markets, suggesting a renewed thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 74% of 317 resolved trades and is up about $225k lifetime
- They are betting across 4 related conflict markets, a pattern that points to a broader event thesis
- This is a fresh re-entry after previously closing a Yes position, with entry at 85¢ while market volume is running 18.4x normal
$7,371 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Pro bettor buying NO
A highly profitable wallet with a strong long-term track record is expressing a cross-market thesis here by selling Yes, which translates into a buyable No at 19¢.
- This bettor wins 77% of their trades and is up $1.7M lifetime
- They have placed $46k across 3 related conflict markets, showing a broader event thesis
- Selling Yes at 81¢ is equivalent to buying No at 19¢, a low-cost contrarian entry
$1,019 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xb784...3581 — No, $60,629
- 0x63d8...5f8e — No, $39,739
- 0x8cce...5c11 — No, $35,354 (95% win rate)
- 0xff91...a1ed — No, $32,478 (71% win rate)
- 0xc0c4...2376 — No, $30,289
- 0x40f1...15f9 — No, $29,916 (21% win rate)
- 0x57ed...fdf0 — No, $24,200 (100% win rate)
- 0x1997...2e36 — No, $20,853 (72% win rate)
- 0x293e...7674 — No, $20,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xdec7...f536 — No, $15,404 (57% win rate)
