What does the US-Iran nuclear deal prediction market cover?

This market covers whether the United States and Iran reach a publicly announced mutual agreement concerning Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by the June 30, 2026 deadline.

When does the US-Iran nuclear deal market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether an official agreement is reached by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying agreement is announced by then, it resolves “No.”

Would the market resolve Yes if the agreement takes effect after June 30?

Yes. According to the market rules, it resolves “Yes” if the agreement is officially reached before the deadline, regardless of when the agreement goes into effect.

What counts as a qualifying agreement between the U.S. and Iran?

A qualifying agreement must be an official, publicly announced mutual agreement involving the United States and Iran over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development.

How much smart money is tracked on this Polymarket market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,403 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market, including activity from high win-rate and repeat whale accounts.

Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if an official agreement is reached before the deadline, even if it takes effect later; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,403 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,518.

Categories: Middle East, World, Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Nuclear

Notable Trades

89% serial cross-market winner

Serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate bought Yes on a geopolitical market, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest sizing.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades across 454 markets and is up about $9.8K lifetime.
They are a highly active cross-market trader, with $1.7M deployed across 389 events.
The 28¢ entry offers a clear asymmetric bet if they see improving odds of a US-Iran agreement.

$1,403 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

94% win-rate bettor

A bettor with an exceptional long-term track record sold No at 68¢, which translates to buying Yes around 32¢ in a liquid geopolitical market after a steep weekly drop.

This bettor wins 94% of their resolved trades and is up $73k across 687 bets.
They sold No at 68¢, which is the same as buying Yes around 32¢ after this market fell 35.5% in a week.
The market is reasonably liquid, so this looks more like a deliberate view on mispricing than a random punt.

$2,207 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% win-rate bettor

A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and strong edge bought No at 61¢ in a major geopolitics market that has been moving against Yes.

This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 671 resolved positions and is up $72.8k
They bought No at 61¢ in a major politics market after a sharp 33-point weekly drop in Yes odds
Entry at 61¢ is still close to the current 64¢ price, leaving a reasonable follow window

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A 4-day-old wallet has already fired 32 large-bet alerts totaling nearly $90k and is now leaning bearish on a major geopolitics market after a sharp 1-day drop, which makes this a noteworthy conviction/new-wallet pattern despite no resolved track record yet.

This 4-day-old wallet has already triggered 32 large-bet alerts totaling about $89.6k
The trade is bearish: selling Yes at 50¢ is equivalent to buying No at 50¢ on a major geopolitics market
The market fell 21 points in a day, and this bettor is still pressing the No side rather than fading the move

$1,901 on No

Repeat new-wallet whale

A 3-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across Polymarket and just bought Yes in a fast-rising geopolitics market, suggesting deliberate conviction worth watching despite no resolved track record yet.

This 3-day-old wallet has already been flagged 23 times for large bets, with about $75k in total flagged size
They just bought Yes at 71¢ in a geopolitics market that is up 11 points in a day and 31 points in a week
The bet is meaningful at $3.3k, but the market is still fairly liquid, so this looks more like persistent conviction than a market-moving trade

$3,323 on Yes

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial event trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 32¢ after a sharp one-day drop, making this a credible contrarian entry worth watching.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime
They trade heavily across 121 related markets and $3.27M total volume, which suggests real event expertise
Bought Yes at 32¢ after this market fell 14.5 points in a day, implying they see the odds as too low

$1,683 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%