US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
127 signals across 1 market · $541,288 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is monitoring the market’s odds alongside smart-money activity, including signals from high win-rate macro bettors and repeat new-wallet whales.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp cluster fading rally
A 7-wallet cluster is fading the sharp Yes rally by effectively buying No, led by an 82% winner up $657k and a serial cross-market trader.
$23,733Score: 11.3 - New profitable repeat bettor
A 8-day-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profits is buying No on a liquid geopolitical market, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited track record.
$1,646Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 9.3 - 95% winner in coordinated YES flow
A highly active bettor with a 95% resolved-market win rate bought Yes alongside one-sided flow and a major volume spike on a politically significant market.
$1,455Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 9.2 - 82% winner betting NO
A highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader sold Yes, effectively buying No, alongside a major volume spike in a geopolitical market.
$4,320Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.4 - Serial trader No cluster
Surfacing because three wallets are fading the Yes rally toward No, led by a high-volume serial trader with a 75% record across hundreds of resolved bets.
$6,437Score: 8.1 - 98% winner buys No
Surface this because a highly profitable 98% lifetime winner and serial cross-market trader bought No on the US-Iran deal market.
$1,675Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 8.0 - Sharp cross-market Yes cluster
Four wallets, including profitable high-volume political bettors, bought nearly $15k of Yes together on a plausible information-sensitive geopolitics market.
$9,248Score: 7.5 - 71% serial cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% record is buying No as volume spikes sharply on a politically meaningful market.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 6.4 - Profitable serial macro trader
Sharp, profitable cross-market trader with an 82% record is effectively buying No on the US-Iran nuclear deal market.
$3,900Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - 81% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and extensive cross-market history bought Yes after strong recent momentum.
$1,530Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7511ec…a568$99,650 · 1 market · 19 alerts · 75% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$50,600 · 1 market · 28 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x7a16aa…33db$48,702 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$47,545 · 1 market · 14 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x6ca3bb…590f$37,218 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 71% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$34,720 · 1 market · 8 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$28,118 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 87% wins
- 0x92a629…8b84$22,070 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 98% wins
- 0xa1d82a…a786$20,223 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x45b5cc…0c5c$18,400 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
The live Polymarket odds show how traders are pricing the chance that the U.S. and Iran reach an official nuclear agreement by the deadline. PolySpotter adds context by tracking smart-money flows behind those odds.
What does this prediction market count as a nuclear deal?
The market resolves to “Yes” if the United States and Iran publicly announce a mutual agreement related to Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by June 30, 2026. If no qualifying agreement is announced by then, it resolves to “No.”
Is smart money betting on the US-Iran nuclear deal market?
Yes. PolySpotter has tracked over $11,000 in smart-money activity across this event, including alerts tied to an 88% win-rate macro bettor, a 94% win-rate bettor, and repeat new-wallet whale activity.
When does the US-Iran nuclear deal market resolve?
This event is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying agreement is announced by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An agreement can resolve the market to “Yes” even if it goes into effect later.
Why watch this event on PolySpotter instead of just Polymarket?
Polymarket shows the market price, while PolySpotter highlights which notable wallets are trading it. That helps users see whether odds moves are being supported by experienced or unusually large bettors.